Key Races & Bets for Saturday September 23rd, 2023
Gallant Bob Stakes – Race 11 at Parx – Post Time 4:35 PM Eastern
Analysis and main contenders:
Nautical Star looks like the horse to beat in this race in which morning line favorite Ryvit (5 to 2) is vulnerable, having finished fifth of five then fifth of 10 in his last two starts, with no excuse, and potentially not getting the lead he needs to win (with wire-to-wire wins in three straight before those last two) because there are others drawn inside with the same running style. On the other hand, Nautical Star has won his last two sprints, and is one-for-one sprinting since joining the Joseph barn in April. He came back from four and one-half months off last month and won easily at seven furlongs on a sloppy main track at Gulfstream, so with rain very likely at Parx he will once again love the surface. He improved to a career-best 94 Equibase Speed Figure with that win, and that is the FASTEST last race in the field, plus he’s bound to improve upon the effort second off the layoff. Another BIG factor in his favor is Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides for the first time, and when Ortiz, Jr. and Joseph have teamed up in the past 20 months (going back to January 1, 2022) they have won 26% of those 84 races.
Among the rest, Ninetyprcentmaddie, Damon’s Mound and Sir Lancelot may also be contenders, and there’s a question as to whether it is worth it to consider Ryvit for some wagers we make involving this race. Sir Lancelot has had the lead in the first quarter mile in five of six races, winning three. Ryvit won three in a row leading from start to finish in April and May. Both horses wear blinkers. Sir Lancelot gets an inside draw over Ryvit but I suspect, and am hoping, these two hook up and go fast early, as both are capable of running :44 and change half-mile fractions. Either, or both, could stick around for a piece of the exacta, and IF either Sir Lancelot or Ryvit does not run, the other could get an easy lead and perhaps not stop. Ninetyprcentmaddie cuts back to one turn after six straight two-turn races, and won three of five sprints before stretching out. He doesn’t need the lead to win, gets Paco Lopez (who was up for a 10 length win in a two-turn race in March) and could have a good stalking trip behind the dueling leaders early, possibly posting the upset, so at 10 to 1 deserves a look to at least complete the exacta. Damon’s Mound had lost six in a row before winning four weeks ago, the difference being Junior Alvarado riding for the first time, getting Lasix, or something else. He runs without Lasix today but won the first two starts of his career without it and although the 90 figure earned last out isn’t going to beat Nautical Star particularly if that one improves second off the layoff, Damon’s Mound is another contender for exotic wagers.
Because there’s a lot of uncertainty, I am forgoing exactas and just playing doubles and pick 3’s in this race.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Nautical Star can and should be bet to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Doubles and Pick 3s (Three tickets) – For the double just use the first two legs of the Pick 3 tickets below:
Race 11: Nautical Star
Race 12: Ceiling Crusher, Pretty Mischievous, Occult
Race 13: Saudi Crown, Magic Tap, Scotland
Race 11: Ninetyprcentmaddie, Damon’s Mound, Nautical Star, Sir Lancelot, Ryvit
Race 12: Ceiling Crusher
Race 13: Saudi Crown, Magic Tap, Scotland
Race 11: Ninetyprcentmaddie, Damon’s Mound, Nautical Star, Sir Lancelot, Ryvit
Race 12: Ceiling Crusher, Pretty Mischievous, Occult
Race 13: Saudi Crown
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Cotillion Stakes – Race 12 at Parx – Post Time 5:20 PM Eastern
Analysis and main contenders:
Ceiling Crusher ships in from California for Doug O’Neill off a devastating wire-to-wire win at a mile (two turns) by six lengths in the Grade 3 Torrey Pines Stakes. In her only other two-turn race, at this mile and one-sixteenth trip (in the Melair Stakes in May) she cruised to a 17 length win. Those first of those two earned a 98 Equibase Figure and the most recent a 104 figure. She opens at 5 to 1 while favorite Pretty Mischievous (opening at 2 to 1) has won three grade 1 stakes in a row, all by a neck or less, with figures of 96, 94 and 90. Considering Ceiling Crusher has a tactical speed advantage as she will have the lead and the rail from the start, and considering she already ran faster than the favorite, or any of the other eight runners, she presents exceptional betting value here as the one to catch, and to beat.
Occult is another with a shot to run a career best race, and potentially beat Ceiling Crusher if that one can’t go all the way in front. With improving figures of 81, 87 and 99, and making her third start off a layoff, Occult also appears to have more probability to win than Pretty Mischievous as she’s already run faster. After Pretty Mischievous beat Occult in the Acorn Stakes in June, a one turn mile and one-sixteenth race, Occult won the Monmouth Oaks by 10 lengths. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides for the first time, for Chad Brown, so this filly’s 6 to 1 starting odds maker her a good win bet as well.
Pretty Mischievous isn’t a false favorite, because she’s won 7 of 9 (compared to 5 of 6 for Ceiling Crusher and three for six for Occult), including gutty rallies in her last three races. Perhaps she is a bit slower in terms of speed figures but she could make up for that in mental toughness and can’t be ruled out as a contender to win this race, remembering she offers a lot less value than the other two.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Ceiling Crusher should be considered for a win bets at odds of 9 to 5 or more.
Win: Occult should be considered for a win bets at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
As we may be considering win bets on more than one horse, this is a great race to take advantage of the mathematical edge provided by a “Dutching” tool, which prorates wagers for the best value. There’s a free dutching tool at Amwager.com, where you can set the amount you want to bet in total and the math is done for you to help achieve the best edge. This is just one of many tools, and perks, for bettors at Amwager.com
Exactas:
Box Ceiling Crusher, Occult, Pretty Mischievous
Double:
Race 12: Ceiling Crusher
Race 13: Saudi Crown, Magic Tap, Scotland
Race 12: Ceiling Crusher, Pretty Mischievous, Occult
Race 13: Saudi Crown
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Pennsylvania Derby – Race 13 at Parx – Post Time 6:10 PM Eastern
Analysis and main contenders:
Saudi Crown has yet to win a stakes race in the three year old division this year, but not for lack of trying or for lack of ability. When stretched out to a mile for his third career start, in the Dwyer Stakes in June, Saudi Crown ran very well, earning a 107 Equibase Speed Figure and battling gamely for the entire length of the stretch head and head with eventual winner Fort Bragg, coming up just a nose shy of victory on the wire. Stretching out to two turns for the first time in the Jim Dandy Stakes four weeks later, Saudi Crown was once again exceptionally game, because after leading from the start he battled down to the wire with favorite Forte, just losing in the final stride by the bob of a head. That effort, at the distance of the Pennsylvania Derby, earned an improved 109 figure. With a good inside post for this race, which should allow jockey Florent Geroux the ability to secure the lead and the rail from the start, Saudi Crown could take another step forward and although there may be competition in the final yards once again, this time he could prevail to win.
Scotland also has run the best race of his career at the mile and one-eighth distance of the Pennsylvania Derby. That effort came in the Curlin Stakes in July at Saratoga where, after leading from the start, Scotland was engaged by Il Miracolo, who drew even with Scotland for a half-mile as the pair battled head and head. During that time, Scotland would not give the lead away, eventually asserting himself to draw off by three and one-quarter lengths, earning a 107 figure in the process. A few weeks later, Scotland was flattered when Curlin runner-up Il Miracolo won the Smarty Jones Stakes in easy fashion. In his next start on August 26, traveling the longer distance of a mile and one-quarter over a muddy track, Scotland faded to sixth after leading for the first mile of the race. Back at the distance of his last win, and having shown he’s not just a need-the-lead type as he rallied from seventh to win one race before the Curlin, Scotland could rebound. If he does he could run well enough to win this year’s Pennsylvania Derby.
Magic Tap was as impressive and as fast when winning at the distance of the Pennsylvania Derby last month at Saratoga as either Saudi Crown was in the Jim Dandy or as Scotland was in the Curlin. Although only an allowance race, Magic Tap continued his pattern of improvement, from a 93 figure three races back to 98, then to 110 in that victory on August 13. In that race, Magic Tap was close to the early pace second from the start, about a half-length from the leader, but then the leader got away by two and one-half lengths with an eighth of a mile to go. Closing mercilessly in the final yards, Magic Tap prevailed by a neck, so he too appears to be a formidable contender in this race.
About the likely favorite:
As to likely public betting choice Reincarnate, there are a number of factors which, in my opinion, suggest his probability to win is much lower than that suggested by his odds. First, he draws the outside post in this nearly full field. Combined with a running style which suggests he needs to lead from the start to win, given that all three of his victories have been earned that way, his outside post dictates jockey Juan Hernandez will have to use a lot of the colt’s speed to get good position before the first turn and avoid going wide and losing ground. This is a lot to ask because it appears very likely Saudi Crown will have the lead from the start as the two horses inside of him in the gate have no desire to lead early. With Magic Tap and Scotland also both possessing excellent tactical speed, this may cause Reincarnate to go too fast in the early stages to remain a strong factor at the wire. Additionally, his two best efforts, when winning the Sham Stakes in January, and when winning the Los Alamitos Derby last month, earned 103 and 101 figures, respectively. When compared to the 109 figure Saudi Crown earned in his most recent race, the 110 figure Magic Tap earned in his most recent race and the 107 figure Scotland earned one race before last, Reincarnate does not appear capable of improving to run as fast as is needed to win this race.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Saudi Crown at odds of 9 to 5 or more.
Scotland and Magic Tap at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
This is another race where we will likely end up betting two horses to win and in that case the free (and easy to use) Dutching Tool at Amwager provides an edge for our profit potential.
Exactas: Box Saudi Crown, Scotland, Magic Tap
