The 2024 Pegasus World Cup
It is Pegasus day at Gulfstream Park, and they have quite a good card with plenty of opportunities. We figured we’d do the big one and see how it shakes out. We also did The Pegasus by The Thorograph Numbers and Patterns, and you can get a leg up on the competition and watch that RIGHT HERE
Nimitz Class has run fast enough to win this in the past and goes first time Weaver today. It looks like a private purchase with this spot in mind. The question is does he have the class to produce those type of winning numbers against these. A stalking inside trip helps and Zayas is riding great. He’s live at what should be a big price, but I see him as more of a fringe or piece player than the winner.
O’ Connor is coming off a big race and hard race. He may get a very attractive pace set up if things play that way, but I have a feeling they might not. I am not sold he can run two back-to-back like that and he would have to if he is going to win this.
Dynamic One had that one disappointing race off the lay-off and as much as I respect Pletcher and what he can do, I can’t jump on board here.
Hoist the Gold is intriguing. He ran a super-fast race last time in a one turn mile. That was on a wet track however and now he is asked to come back and do it again at two turns and a mile and an eighth. He can regress on the numbers and win, but we still have the distance and wet track questions. He should set the pace, but unless the other riders on fast horses decide to hand it over to him which does happen at times, I think they get him on Saturday.
Trademark is a solid and somewhat steady stalker. He looks a cut below a few in here to me.
Senor Buscador has run fast enough to win and is a likely benefactor should we wind up with a hot pace here. He will be a big price and has a strong finisher in the saddle. If you see a lot of pace in here and wind up landing on this salty veteran I can’t fault you. He’s very likely to hit the board at a big price.
National Treasure gave Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish all he could handle in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He was clear on the lead that day and that isn’t likely in The Pegasus. If he runs back to that race and can do it stalking another horse or two, he will be a handful as the favorite. Probably an overlaid favorite at 5-2 or 2-1 “ish”. I think he does look like a horse who can sit, and finally a horse who is coming into his own and delivering on early potential. I think he is the one to beat under a heady ride by Prat.
First Mission will have to run faster than he ever did to win this. Can he, absolutely but he will be a short price, likely close second choice to do it. He might even go favored. He gets a perfect trip on paper and that should move him up. He ran a gritty race in The Clark but the kind of race that should toughen him up and he has had the right amount of time off. Dangerous.
Grand Aspen has a nice style and comes out of the Pletcher barn. He’d be no shock and is on the upswing, but I do not believe he is quite up to this just yet. I do like Jose on this type of runner a lot.
Il Miracolo is steady as they come but seems to lack the killer instinct. He’d need things to fall perfectly. I think he’s a cut below.
Crupi gets Frankie and seems to be coming around. He’d benefit from a fast pace and was cut out to be a good one. He will have to run a lot faster than he has but it is Todd and Frankie so that is not impossible. He will have to prove it to me.
Skippylongstocking has a tough post. He also likes to stalk, not an ideal scenario from out there. I think he is a cut below a few of these.
Decisions, decisions. There are a lot of ways to go in here. For me it may be a game time decision, but I think I will likely try to get Senor Buscador into the triple and superfecta in the 2nd or 3rd slot and maybe get lucky. I think ultimately the pace will be the deciding factor and frankly it can go either way despite how it looks on paper. I wish First Mission was faster, but it is what it is, and I do see a forward move. I can see myself leaning that way as whichever way the pace shapes up, he should be alright if he can improve two to three points. That is not an unreasonable ask.
