Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets – September 11, 2021
Mint Ladies Sprint Stakes – Race 6 Kentucky Downs – Post Time 3:57 Eastern
Yes It’s Ginger was sent to post as the 5 to 2 favorite in her last two races, both wins in non-graded stakes which like this were sprints on turf. Yet because this is a 12 horse field she opens at 12/1 and could be a GIFT if running as well in this field. She’s been first or second in seven of eight this year and has the ability to take the lead early if no other horse wants it or to sit off the pace. She fits on all counts and leads a quartet of decently priced fillies and mares which can make betting on this race VERY profitable.
Catch a Bid opens at similarly high 8/1 starting odds, this mare also coming off a stakes win. That came in a two-turn race so on the cut back to one turn she should have a good deal of extra stamina and she did finish second at this six furlong turf trip right before that at Belmont in a highly rated race under Saez, who gets back on. Since moving to the Sharp barn, Catch a Bid has been first or second in three of four turf sprints so like Yes It’s Ginger she appears very likely to be part of the exacta even if she doesn’t win.
Lagertha opens at 15/1 but I expect her to be nearly double those odds near post time because she comes from low profile connections. Since importing to the U.S. last August, she has finished first or second in ALL FIVE turf sprints, including a stakes and two handicaps, and in her most recent start she might’ve won if not boxed in, then bumped and checked in the late stages, with the jockey GIVING up in the final yards. She’s put in two big works at Gulfstream before shipping into Kentucky and she appears game as can be so must be respected as a contender.
She’s So Special rounds out a quartet of potential high odds horses to use on exacta and pick 3 tickets in this sequence which starts in this race. She missed by a neck in a mile turf race last month at Del Mar and won a stakes last June as well while going four-for-eight in 2020. Rosario gets on for the high percentage Peter Miller barn and whereas she was 5 to 2 last out, today She’s So Special opens at 15/1 with all the credentials to run well.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets:
I believe we will get more than minimum odds of 3 to 1 on both Yes It’s Ginger and Catch a Bid so both should be bet to win.
When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. A s tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
For smaller amounts (as compared to Yes It’s Ginger and Catch a Bid), Lagertha and She’s So Special can be bet to win at odds of 7 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
She’s So Special, Yes It’s Ginger, Catch a Bid and Lagertha over She’s So Special, Yes It’s Ginger, Catch a Bid, Lagertha, Superstition, Jeanie B, Venetian Harbor, Violenza, Constantia and In Good Spirits
(Optionally play the reverse of that exacta as well, so if the top four contenders finish both first and second we win both tickets)
Box She’s So Special, Yes It’s Ginger, Catch a Bid and Lagertha
Doubles:
Race 6: She’s So Special, Yes It’s Ginger, Catch a Bid, Lagertha
Race 7: Princess Grace, She’sonthewarpath, Summer in Saratoga
Race 6: She’s So Special, Yes It’s Ginger, Catch a Bid, Lagertha
Race 7: Princess Grace
Pick 3:
Race 6: She’s So Special, Yes It’s Ginger, Catch a Bid, Lagertha
Race 7: Princess Grace, She’sonthewarpath, Summer in Saratoga
Race 8: Fast Boat, Born Great, Front Run the Fed and Casa Creed
Race 6: She’s So Special, Yes It’s Ginger, Catch a Bid, Lagertha
Race 7: Princess Grace
Race 8: Fast Boat, Born Great, Front Run the Fed and Casa Creed
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Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Stakes – Race 7 at Kentucky Downs – Post Time 4:34PM
Princess Grace opens as the 2 to 1 favorite and is a legitimate favorite, but She’sonthewarpath and Summer in Saratoga offer enough return for the risk (both opening at high odds) they must be considered as well.
Princess Grace has won three graded stakes in a row including the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon Handicap. She’s five-for-six in her career including two wins at this mile turf trip and she’s now won on FIVE different racetracks. The 116 Equibase figure tops the field so it appears it’s going to take an extraordinary effort to beat her. As she is likely to go to post at odds too low to bet her to win, we should play her as a “single” (the only horse to use) on some double and pick 3 tickets as in the above recommended wagers I personally will be making.
She’sonthewarpath has won two in a row, both non-graded stakes, the best of which earned a 103 figure. She ran even better last summer when earning 107 and 109 figures and she’s earned just shy of a half-million to date, more than Princess Grace, while winning eight of 16 races on grass in her career. She has a big late kick and if Princess Grace isn’t up to the task this mare could provide us with a nice profit, opening at 8/1. Similarly, Summer in Saratoga has won five of 13 on turf in her career including two stakes at a mile and one-sixteenth this year. The other two of her last four are totally IRRELEVANT as one was on sloppy dirt and in the other she stumbled at the start and lost the jockey. Perhaps best of all, the mare has a win at a mile on turf here at Kentucky Downs, earned nearly a year ago to the day. Saez gets on and the 110 and 112 figures from the two wins are close enough to the best effort Princess Grace put forth that it is obvious to me she should NOT be anywhere near 12/1 as she is on the morning line, but I will certainly not complain.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: She’sonthewarpath and Summer in Saratoga at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
This is another race where the free Dutching tool at Amwager comes in very handy and helps us to maximize our profit when we bet two or more horses to win.
Exactas:
Princess Grace, She’sonthewarpath and Summer in Saratoga over Princess Grace, She’sonthewarpath, Summer in Saratoga and Abscond.
Trifectas:
Princess Grace, She’sonthewarpath and Summer in Saratoga over Princess Grace, She’sonthewarpath, Summer in Saratoga and Abscond over ALL.
Princess Grace over She’sonthewarpath, Summer in Saratoga and Abscond over ALL.
Doubles:
Race 7: Princess Grace, She’sonthewarpath, Summer in Saratoga
Race 8: Fast Boat, Born Great, Front Run the Fed and Casa Creed
Race 7: Princess Grace
Race 8: Fast Boat, Born Great, Front Run the Fed and Casa Creed
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Turf Sprint Stakes – Race 8 at Kentucky Downs – Post Time 5:09 Eastern
Fast Boat is a VERY good turf sprinter, having won 10 of 25 starts in his career including multiple stakes. He also won his only start at Kentucky Downs, two years ago. He won the Grade 3 Troy Stakes at Belmont last month with a career-best 115 Equibase figure that stacks up against horses at lower odds and there’s no knock in getting Rosario to ride. Also it appears Fast Boat shares a recent workout with Catch a Bid in race 6 as both hail from the Joe Sharp barn. Be especially aware if Catch a Bid ran well in that race.
Front Run the Fed opens at 20/1 odds only because his last race was sub-par as he finished sixth in the Troy, won by Fast Boat. In the Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs last year, Front Run the Fed ran huge to miss by a neck and was sent to post at 9 to 2 that day. Before the Troy, Fast Boat ran just fine when third in the Poker Stakes and second (missing by a head) in the Elusive Quality Stakes, won by Casa Creed, who won the Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes after that and who finished third in the Fourstardave Handicap (won by Got Stormy), with Casa Creed opening at 7/2 based on his third place effort but in fact Front Run the Fed was only a couple of lengths further back and after breaking slowly.
Casa Creed must be used on double and pick 3 tickets started in earlier races but will be a poorer win bet when compared to the other three win contenders. He’s won two of five this year – the Elusive Quality at seven furlongs then the Jaipur at this six furlong trip. He cuts back from a mile off a third place finish in the Fourstardave Handicap and the Jaipur was his only try, ever, at this six furlong turf trip, so he could run back to that winning try cutting back to the distance.
Born Great rounds out the top win contenders here, opening at 15/1 whereas he was the 5 to 2 favorite last month winning the Preview Turf Sprint Stakes at Ellis Park. He won a PAIR of races at Kentucky Downs, both at six and one-half furlongs, last September (seven days apart) and so he’s a horse proven to like the track, who is a stakes winner, who enters the race off a win. There’s not more to ask of a horse in a race at this level when considering making a bet and especially at double digit odds.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Similar to the other two races on this week’s Key Races & Bets Blog, we should absolutely consider win bets on AT LEAST two of the four contenders, likely the two at the highest odds, starting at 9 to 2. Since Casa Creed opens at 7/2 the decision is much easier.
This is yet another race where the use of a DUTCHING TOOL, like the free one at Amwager, comes in very handy.
Specifically – win bets on Fast Boat and Front Run the Fed should be considered at 9 to 2 or more.
Born Great can also be bet to win at odds of 9 to 2 or more.
Exactas:
Box Fast Boat, Front Run the Fed, Casa Creed and Born Great
Trifecta:
Box Fast Boat, Front Run the Fed, Casa Creed and Born Great
Also, Fast Boat, Front Run the Fed, Casa Creed and Born Great over ALL over Fast Boat, Front Run the Fed, Casa Creed and Born Great (Played in combination with the four horse exacta box above, we win if any two of the four finish first and second or first and third. If three of the four finish in the top three, we win both bets.)
