Key Races & Bets for Saturday July 27, 2024
Brought to you by Amwager.com, a great legal online wagering website with great betting tools and perks, legal for residents of most states and covering most tracks in North America as well as many in the rest of the world.
Ontario Colleen Stakes - Race 8 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:47 PM Eastern
Top win Contender: Sabatini
Other contenders: Crevalle d’Oro, Ready for Shirl, Simply in Front
Longshot to consider: Miss Roberts
Sabatini stretched out to two turns for the first time four weeks ago to win the Grade 3 Selene Stakes, with a visually impressive move on the far turn to go from fourth to first, and easily held a two length advantage for the final eighth of a mile. That effort earned a field high 100 Equibase Speed Figure and being as this will be her second route she should run even better. She’s bred to run as well on grass as she did on all-weather and is the one to beat.
That being said, even though Crevalle d’ Oro was two lengths in arrears of Sabatini in the Selene, her 10 to 1 starting odds may demand we bet a few bucks to win. This is because she’s making her third start and second route off a three month layoff and improved from a 90 figure effort in a turf sprint in June over the course to a 97 figure last out. She’s one of three trained by Casse (the other two being Witwatersrand and Time to Dazzle) and she also won a two-turn turf race in January so fits pretty well.
Ready for Shirl and Miss Roberts finished first and second, respectively, in a turf route over the course last month. Their 88 and 86 figures are a bit low to think they can win even with improvement but they can’t be counted out and while Ready for Shirl opens at 4 to 1, Miss Roberts opens at 20 to 1 that doesn’t make sense given she rallied from seventh on the turn to lead in the stretch and was only beaten a length and one-half at the end. Simply in Front finished second in the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes on the course last fall and won at a mile in June in Kentucky before a poorer effort on June 29 when leading in the stretch and fading to seventh. She’s better than that and the June 6 win earned a 102 figure as good as Sabatini earned last month so if Simply in Front rebounds to her June 6 form she could have a say in the outcome. Simply in Front rebounds to her June 6 form she could have a say in the outcome.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
Sabatini at 9 to 5 or more.
Crevalle d’Oro at 4 to 1 or more
Miss Roberts at 8 to 1 or more.
Simply in Front at 8 to 1 or more.
In this race there may be an opportunity for a mathematical edge by using a dutching tool, which prorates wagers for the best value. There’s a free dutching tool at Amwager.com, where you can set the amount you want to bet and the math is done for you to help achieve the best edge. This is just one of many tools, and perks, for bettors at Amwager.com
Exactas:
Sabatini over Simply in Front, Crevalle d’Oro, Ready for Shirl, Miss Roberts
Crevalle d’ Oro and Sabatini over Simply in Front, Crevalle d’Oro, Ready for Shirl, Miss Roberts, Sabatini
Doubles:
Race 8: Sabatini
Race 9: Public Sector, Money Supply, Palazzi, Paramount Prince
Race 8: Crevalle d’ Oro, Sabatini
Race 9: Public Sector, Money Supply, Palazzi, Paramount Prince
Seagram Cup Stakes - Race 9 at Woodbine - Post Time 5:21 PM Eastern
Contenders: Public Sector, Money Supply, Palazzi, Paramount Prince
Although Paramount Prince will go favored off his strong wire-to-wire win last month in the Dominion Day Stakes, this may be a tougher group, particularly as he draws the outside in a field of nine and is absolutely a horse that can only win when getting an easy lead in the opening strides. In the Dominion Day, Paramount Prince earned a 100 figure and could have run faster, and he did earn a career-best 113 figure winning the King’s Plate last year when leading from start to finish as well. On the other hand, Public Sector just ran the best race of his career when shipping into Woodbine for a July 19 race on grass, earning a 110 figure, and he is expected to improve off that effort in his third start off the layoff, just needing to transfer that turf form to all-weather, which shouldn’t be an issue. Opening at 6 to 1 compared to 2 to 1 for Paramount Prince, Public Sector is not only the better bet, he may be more probable as he’s not a need the lead type.
Money Supply also moves from Turf to All-Weather and comes into the race off a strong win in the Schuster Memorial three weeks ago. Red hot jockey Vives gets on for a strong trainer in Joe Sharp and as Money Supply has won eight of 19 including the Grade 3 Mineshaft Stakes earlier this year he fits as a contender on all counts as well.
Palazzi opens as the 3 to 1 second choice on the strength of his win one before last on June 1 in the Grade 2 Eclipse Stakes on the main track at Woodbine and at this distance. He regressed badly four weeks ago in the Dominion Day when fourth but has a shot if he runs back to his Eclipse effort.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
ALL FOUR horses have about the same probability to win and can be considered for bets at 7 to 2 more.
This is DEFINITELY a race where we want to be the two at the highest odds and use a dutching tool to get the best edge we can.
Exactas: Box Public Sector, Money Supply, Palazzi, Paramount Prince
Jim Dandy Stakes - Race 10 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:43 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Gould’s Gold, Batten Down, Sierra Leone
Fierceness is a need-the-lead type until proven otherwise but may not have the lead he needs to succeed here because Seize the Grey went to the front in winning the Preakness and attempted the same in the Belmont before fading to seventh. Pony Express ships out from California off a strong wire-to-wire maiden win and will add to the speed brigade. Obviously, Sierra Leone is a dead closer and will be last of six in the early stages. That leaves Gould’s Gold and Batten Down as the horses in the best position to succeed when the horses on the lead get tired, with Sierra Leone logically moving quickly into the picture in mid-stretch.
Batten Down led from start to finish in the Ohio Derby, with Gould’s Gold second the entire way. Batten Down also wired the field at 10 furlongs in his maiden win before that. He doesn’t need the lead though as shown when rallying from sixth to third right before that and as he’s on an improving pattern he could post the mild upset, opening at 5 to 1.
At the least, Gould’s Gold is the key to exacta profit as he opens at 15 to 1. He ran his best race ever one before last when leading late then beaten a nose in the Sir Barton Stakes and although he was no match for Batten Down in the Ohio Derby he ran creditably well.
Sierra Leone has proven to be his own worst enemy of late, first with the antics he pulled in the Dery when trying to get in and bumping Forever Young down the lane, while Mystic Dan snuck up the rail. Then in the Belmont he took an awkward step and leaned into the horse on the inside. When asked to run he really took off but it was too late to make an impact on a resurgent Dornoch, who came back to win the Haskell last week to show he’s king of the three year old division right now.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
Batten Down at 3 to 1 or more
Gould’s Gold at 5 to 1 or more
Exactas:
Box Gould’s Gold and Batten Down, Box Gould’s Gold and Sierra Leone
Batten Down over Gould’s Gold and Sierra Leone
BONUS RACE – Bing Crosby Stakes - Race 10 at Del Mar - Post Time 9:30 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Straight No Chaser, The Chosen Vron
Contenders but a bit less probable: Closethegame Sugar, Happy Jack
Although The Chosen Vron enters this year’s Bing Crosly Stakes off a win in the Thor’s Echo Stakes, the same race he won last year prior to winning this race, I believe Straight No Chaser can pull off the mild upset with his sensational early speed. Last April (2023) Straight No Chaser earned a career best 113 Equibase Speed Figure when leading from the start then romping home in “ridden out” fashion by seven lengths. Seven weeks later, he duplicated the effort with a seven length win in the Maryland Sprint Stakes, leading from the start and ridden out to victory with the 109 figure earned likely to be much higher if he was asked to run harder in the final sixteenth of a mile. Something went awry after that, as Straight No Chaser went on the sidelines until reappearing in the Runhappy Stakes in May at Aqueduct in New York. He finished fourth in the race but the effort can be TOTALLY IGNORED because Straight No Chaser stumbled out of the gate and started last of five then rushed up to lead before tiring. In both his wins last April and May, Straight No Chaser easily got to the front from the start and that was the key to his dominating efforts. He had no such chance in the Runhappy. For the Big Crosby he gets off the rail and since shipping back to California, Straight No Chaser has put in some spectacular workouts which tells us he has all his speed and will get the lead from the start with a clean break. From there he can play “come catch me” as that 113 figure he earned last April is the same as the 113 figure The Chosen Vron earned winning this race last year.
The Chosen Vron doesn’t need much talking up as he’s won 18 of 23 career races including five in a row, all stakes. After winning the 2023 Bing Crosby with a 113 figure, The Chosen Vron finished fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Just two weeks later, The Chosen Vron won the Cary Grant Stakes at Del Mar, earning a new career best 116 speed figure. That was the first of five stakes race wins in a row, including when earning a 115 figure in the Kona Gold Stakes in April. Being as there’s little doubt his best race is good enough to win similar to last year, the only question concerning whether The Chosen Vron can be a repeat winner of this race is whether he can run down Straight No Chaser if that horse is allowed an uncontested lead for the first half-mile.
Happy Jack and Closethegame Sugar both can win but appear a tiny bit less probable than Straight No Chaser and The Chosen Vron. Happy Jack just won the Triple Bend Stakes on June 1 with a 110 figure to prove he belongs at the level, but just prior to that he was no match for The Chosen Vron as he was a half-length behind that one with a half-mile to run and was behind by three-quarters of a length at the finish. Closethegame Sugar won the Mahony Stakes last August on turf, then two later won a handicap race one month later with a then career best 107 figure. After taking a bit more than seven months off to mature, the four year old finished second then won the Aristides Stakes and Kelly’s Landing Stakes in succession, with a strong 109 figure in his most recent race which, if improved upon, makes him a contender as well.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
Straight No Chaser at 2 to 1 or higher.
Exactas:
Straight No Chaser and The Chosen Vron over Closethegame Sugar and Happy Jack
(The reason for these combinations is both Straight No Chaser and The Chosen Vron do not run second, with Straight No Chaser having a record of 4 wins and no seconds and with The Chosen Vron having a record of 18 wins and one second).
