Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 5th, 2024
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Frizette Stakes - Race 7 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) - Post Time 3:17 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Another Cleeshay, Senza Parole, Snowyte
Another Cleeshay may be ignored in the betting off a maiden win at Saratoga compared to others with stakes races recently. However, she won much more easily than the 78 Equibase Speed Figure makes it appear, virtually galloping late to a nine and one-half length win. This was AFTER tossing her head to the side when the gate opened, breaking eighth of 10, before easily gaining the lead and not showing any signs of mis-expending any energy. Trainer Contessa won the 2023 Hopeful Stakes for two year olds last year at 50 to 1 odds off a horse with just a maiden win and I think this filly is going to be well worth wagering on today as she can post the upset.
Senza Parole is the one to beat on paper as she won her only start as well, in a non-restricted maiden race at Saratoga one week before Another Cleeshay earned her debut win. Senza Parole earned a stakes quality (for a two year old) 94 figure with that easy seven and three-quarter length win and she’s the ONLY starter in the field saddled by Chad Brown, who won this race with Echo Zulu a few years back and who has six wins in stakes race for two year olds on the circuit from 26 starters over the past few years, and one significant runner-up (Sierra Leone). He won the hopeful with Jack Christopher in 2021 off a maiden win and with Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding back, Senza Parole could add to Brown’s numbers.
Snowyte led from the start in her debut on September 1 and was run down with about 70 yards to go but held second strongly. She adds blinkers to help her focus and Rosario is likely to send her to the lead from the start, where she may not be caught. She’s going to improve off an 82 speed figure debut and her sire, Good Magic, has had a LOT of success with two year olds including Dornoch, Muth, Dubyhnell, Blazing Sevens and Curly Jack.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Both Another Cleeshay and Senza Parole can be bet to win at 5 to 2 or more, but I think only the former will meet that threshold. Snowyte can be considered at 3 to 1.
Exacta: Box Snowyte, Another Cleeshay and Senza Parole
Senza Parole over Snowyte and Another Cleeshay
Woodford Stakes - Race 6 at Keeneland - Post Time 3:40 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Souper Quest, Our Shot
In a highly rated classified allowance race on grass run at Saratoga near the end of July, Souper Quest led from the start, was headed after a half-mile, opened up in the stretch and prevailed by a nose to Our Shot, who was flying late. A little over four weeks later, in the Harvey Pack Stakes (also at Saratoga), Souper Quest stalked the pacesetter in second for the first half-mile, took over and led with an eighth of a mile to run, then was passed eventual winner Big Invasion as well as Our Shot. In this year’s Woodford field, in spite of it appearing there are a few horses that may want the lead, Jose Ortiz should be able to put Souper Quest on the lead, and considering how firm the turf will likely be after a few days of sunshine, he may not be caught. He won one year ago this week at this distance at Keeneland when leading from start to finish and even if not first, his 4-3-2 career record in nine races, all on turf, tells us he is going to absolutely be part of the exacta or trifecta if he doesn’t win.
Our Shot closed from fifth to miss by a nose in the allowance race at the end of July and again from fifth to miss by a head in the Harvey Pack. He closed from eighth to second in the 2023 Woodford Stakes and is in even better form this year so must be considered a strong contender to win or to complete the exacta.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Souper Quest and Our Shot can both be considered for win bets at 2 to 1 or more.
As both horses are so consistent, instead of an exacta I think there is opportunity in using them as key horses on trifecta tickets as follows:
Souper Quest and Our Shot over Souper Quest and Our Shot over ALL.
Souper Quest and Our Shot over ALL over Souper Quest and Our Shot
ALL over Souper Quest and Our Shot over Souper Quest and Our Shot
First Lady Stakes - Race 8 at Keeneland - Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Tarawa, Special Wan, Walkathon
Horses to use on exacta/trifecta tickets: Chili Flag, Whitebeam, Gina Romantica, Fluffy Socks
Tarawa ships across the pond for world class trainer Dermot Weld, bringing along Christopher Hayes to ride as he has in 11 of 13 races including ALL three wins. Weld has ONLY shipped two horses to North America in the last five years, and one of them, the similarly named Tarnawa, won the Breeders’ Cup Turf in 2020. This four year old filly just won a group 3 race at nine furlongs in Ireland with a 108 Equibase Figure, the second 108 figure she’s earned in a row, and with SO MANY of the others in this field not able to string together “A” races, or entering the race off questionable efforts, Tarawa gets top billing. She faced males in May, June and July, finishing first, second and third in those three races, before returning to just females on August 31 for the win. Cutting back from nine furlongs to eight only helps her chances to make the last run and win this one mile race.
Special Wan has the experience of one North American Start, like Tarawa having run in Ireland previously. She missed by a head to Males in June in a stakes with a strong 108 figure as good as Tarawa’s last two figures, and she showed a lot of that same talent in her local debut four weeks ago at Kentucky Downs when putting in a big late run from ninth to win going away. She ran the last quarter mile in that race in about 22.8 seconds and if she can repeat that effort she could blow by the field for the win.
Walkathon is very tough on the lead for from off the pace, having won a stakes three back when in front from start to finish, then closing from fifth to win by a head, then once again winning on the lead. That last effort came in the very tough Ladies Turf Stakes at Kentucky Downs, where Walkathon earned the same 108 figure as Tarawa and Special Wan recently, so she rounds out the top three contenders to win this race.
Chad Brown, as usual, tries to corner his competition by saddling four runners in this race. However, none are standouts and some have problems running good races back to back. Chili Flag won the Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes in June with a 109 figure then was ninth of 10 one month later in the Grade 1 Diana. Whitebeam won the Diana but was second in two straight prior to that. Gina Romantica won this race last year but has finished seventh, fifth, third and second in her last four, while Fluffy Socks was eighth behind Whitebeam in the Diana then fifth behind Walkathon in the Ladies Turf after winning the Gallorette in May.
Handicapper Picks
Win: ALL three contenders – Tarawa, Special Wan and Walkathon, can be considered for win bets at odds of 3 to 1 or more. The strategy should be to bet TWO of the three, the two at the highest odds, at 3 to 1 or more.
Exactas: Tarawa, Special Wan and Walkathon over Tarawa, Special Wan, Walkathon, Chili Flag, Whitebeam, Gina Romantica and Fluffy Socks
