Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 12th, 2024
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Sands Point Stakes - Race 5 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) - Post Time 2:13 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Courbe, Style Points
For use on exacta tickets: Mo Fox Girvin, Spaliday
Having never run on turf, Courbe may be ignored by some bettors, perhaps for our benefit. This exceptionally well-bred daughter of Quality Road is out of an unraced mare which was bred by the owners, Wertheimer et Frere, who have campaigned some of the best turf horses in the world for decades. Courbe won in her debut last August (2023) on dirt then as you might expect for a talented two year old was put on the road to the Kentucky Oaks. After finishing fourth in the Pocahontas Stakes she dropped into an allowance race and won easily once again. She may have had issues so was off for nine months until this past July when Courbe returned in a stakes at Saratoga on dirt and finished just a neck behind the runner-up, in spite of almost falling at the start. Off that effort she was well-regarded at 7 to 2 in the Cathryn Sophia Stakes in August but once again had trouble at the start, getting pinched back to last. She moved up to third mid-race but then tired. The winner of that race was Gun Song, who came back to nearly defeat Thorpedo Anna in the Cotillion Stakes last month. Considering this horse’s breeding for turf and quality, that she’s making her third start off a layoff and won her third carer start, and that trainer Todd Pletcher won this race with Wait a While moving from dirt to turf, I think Courbe can post the upset. It may also be important to note the jockey Carmouche rides for the first time and has a very good record for Pletcher – 63 for 250 over the last five years and better still perhaps 11 for 58 in stakes races.
Style Points is the one to beat on paper having won three of seven including the Virginia Oaks last month, rather easily. Rosario rode her to an allowance win in April, not before, or since, and gets on, and the filly makes her second start following two months off so has a big shot to run as well or better than she did in the Oaks.
Mo Fox Girvin and Spaliday can be considered for second on exacta tickets. Mo Fox Girvin missed by a neck three back in the Tepin Stakes in June and two before that in the Appalachian Stakes, while Spaliday won the non-graded Boiling Springs Stakes in July at Monmouth before a fourth place effort in the Lake Placid, from which both the winner and runner-up are running in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup today at Keeneland.
Handicapper Picks
Win: It is likely Courbe will be the higher odds of the two contenders near post time so she offers the best return for the risk. However, Style Points has a fairly decent probability to win as well so we can consider betting both to win as below, remembering when we wager on more than one horse to win, we are cutting into our profit BUT at the same time we are increasing our chance of making a profit. This can often be a worthwhile tradeoff.
Courbe at 3 to 1 or more. Consider Style Points at 2 to 1 or more.
Exacta: Courbe and Style Points over Courbe, Style Points, Mo Fox Girvin and Spaliday
Double:
Race 5: Courbe, Style Points
Race 6: Skyrush, Fort Nelson, Keewaydin
Pick 3:
Race 5: Courbe, Style Points
Race 6: Skyrush, Fort Nelson, Keewaydin
Race 7: Love Appeals, Secret Money, My Kentucky Girl
Race 6 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) - Post Time 2:45 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Skyrush, Keewaydin, Fort Nelson
I picked this race because it’s sandwiched between the two stakes on the card and also because there’s a first time starter by Vekoma, a first crop sire having one of the best success stories I can recall. Sons and daughters of Vekoma making their debuts have won 13 of 49 races, with another 10 finishing second or third. That’s better than 25%, and many have paid handsomely. As if often the case, first crop sires are bred to mares to produce “early” winners, in order to boost their bookings the following seasons, and that will certainly be the case with Vekoma. Skyrush can add to those numbers, as he’s in the top Gargan barn and put in a sparkling 47.2 half-mile workout from the gate recently.
Keewaydin is the one to beat on paper, having missed winning in his debut by a nose and a head and from the Brown barn, which wins with 25% of its maiden second time starters in dirt sprints (8 for 31 the past three years). Fort Nelson comes from the Mott barn and is likely live as the dam has had seven foals race, with three finishing in the money in their debuts and another couple winning second time out. This colt also put in a strong recent workout, 59.8 for five furlongs which was the best of the day at the distance.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Skyrush can be considered at 3 to 1 or more. Fort Nelson can be considered at 4 to 1 or more. Keewaydin can be considered at 2 to 1 or more but will likely be the favorite.
Doubles:
Race 6: Skyrush, Fort Nelson, Keewaydin
Race 7: Love Appeals, Secret Money, My Kentucky Girl
Floral Park Stakes - Race 7 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) - Post Time 3:17 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Secret Money, My Kentucky Girl, Love Appeals
Secret Money is a graded stakes winner in this non-graded stakes. She won the Grade 3 Music City Stakes 13 months ago at Kentucky Downs and was pretty well regarded at 5 to 1 in that strong field, then this past May she nearly won the Grade 3 Unbridled Sydney Stakes, coming up a neck short on the wire with a big rally. Her best race ever came not when winning but when fourth in a blanket finish one before last at Saratoga in the Grade 3 Caress Stakes where Secret Money was last of 10 on the turn and rallied fast to miss by two necks and a head. That effort was followed by the Grade 2 Ladies Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs where she had trouble at the start and was 11th before rallying past a number of horses to finish fifth. This is one quality filly and if Carmouche can get her to settle in about fourth early she can blast by the field to win.
My Kentucky Girl may be ignored by the public because she’s not proven at the level and she has not hit the board in two previous turf races. None of that matters in my opinion because the first 14 races in her 16 race career were for other trainers than Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott. She joined the Mott barn in July, off a 10 month layoff, and ran phenomenally well when rallying five wide to win by a neck on the wire. She ran very poorly in her only other start for Mott last month when last of six BUT if Mott places here in this stakes race on turf, he must suspect she is 1) fit enough to run well and 2) will like the grass. With his #1 jockey Junior Alvarado out of town today, Lezcano gets on and when riding for Mott, he wins at better than a 20% clip. Being a daughter of American Pharoah, My Kentucky Girl should love the turf and she has the right style for this race as she rallied from eighth to win in the fall of 22 and from fourth to win this past July.
Love Appeals, like Secret Money, is a stakes winner, having won a $100K stakes on the grass at Monmouth in August. She’s now won four of nine on turf. Before the stakes win in August, Love Appeals won another turf sprint in July so repeating either of those efforts gives her a good chance at success here.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Secret Money, My Kentucky Girl and Love Appeals should all be considered for win bets at 5 to 2 or more and I would not hesitate to bet the two of the trio at the highest odds to win.
When betting more than one horse to win, an edge can be obtained by pro-rating your bets to obtain the same profit. This is called “Dutching” and there’s an easy to use “Dutching” tool at Amwager where you set the total amount you want to bet and all the math is done for you.
