Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 26th, 2024
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Race 7 at Keeneland - Post Time 4:12 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Strike When Ready, Lady Emily Kathryn, Kehoe Beach, Work of Fiction
This is an exceptionally wide open race with a full field which should lend itself to profit as there are a few horses likely to go to post at much higher odds than make sense. One of those is Strike When Ready, who just won on 9/17 at the one lower NW1X allowance level. She did so with a visually impressive rally from eighth with a quarter mile to run and was still fifth and seven lengths back with an eighth of a mile to go before blowing by four horses to get up by a neck. Previously, she imported from Ireland over the winter after just one race in Ireland and ran poorly for Gallagher in California in April, but when shipped to the care of Correas she was a new horse and won in July to break her maiden, before taking a big step forward to win last month, earning a 95 Equibase Speed Figure which is the BEST last race figure in the field. Not only that but Jose Ortiz was up for the first time in victory and rides back and there is every reason to believe this filly can win her third in a row, opening at 12 to 1.
Lady Emily Kathryn opens at even higher odds, 15 to 1 in spite of getting leading jockey Gaffalione to ride. She won at the one lower NW1X level in April at Keeneland and returns here after two poorer efforts which we may ignore as not relevant. The fact Gaffalione gets on what looks like a horse off form is significant, because when he has ridden for the barn of Saffie Joseph, Jr. they have won better than 25% of the time. She also gets blinkers and Joseph has won 12 of his last 46 (25%) over the last few year’s when he adds blinkers.
Kehoe Beach opens as the favorite on the strength of an eight length win last month at Kentucky downs at the one lower level. She lost her only other turf race by a head and may be the one the rest have to catch as she has been in front from the start in both turf races. On the other hand, she gets the 11 post and the win came at seven furlongs, whereas the defeat on the wire after leading late came in her only two turn race, with a 102 figure not much better than Strike When Ready’s best.
Work of Fiction also gets an outside post but opens at 12 to 1 (instead of 2 to 1 for Kehoe Beach) and that value may make up for the concern about here post. She also comes from mid-pack so doesn’t have to use energy early to save ground as Arrieta, who was up for a win in her last start, can gently guide her to that position before the first turn. She earned a 94 figure winning at the one lower NW1X level in her last start and earned her other win at Keeneland so fits on all counts and like Strike When Ready, Work of Fiction opens at 12 to 1 odds.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Strike When Ready at 4 to 1 or more, Lady Emily Kathryn at 4 to 1 or higher.
Work of Fiction at 6 to 1 or more.
I would bet both Strike When Ready and Lady Emily Kathryn to win if they are 4 to 1 or more. If one of them is below 4 to 1, I would consider Work of Fiction for the second win bet.
When betting more than one horse to win, an edge can be obtained by pro-rating your bets to obtain the same profit. This is called “Dutching” and there’s an easy to use “Dutching” tool at Amwager where you set the total amount you want to bet and all the math is done for you.
There are too many potential combinations for an exacta, but the double from this race to race eight also offers exceptional profit opportunity.
Double:
Race 7: Strike When Ready, Lady Emily Kathryn, Kehoe Beach, Work of Fiction
Race 8: Heroic Move, Hit Show
Note: Considering Hit Show in race 8 may be the favorite, we can play one more double using the four contenders in race 7 with just Hit Show in race 8.
Hagyard Fayette Stakes - Race 8 at Keeneland- Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Heroic Move, Hit Show
For exacta tickets: Tumbarumba, War Campaign
Heroic Move is the one more likely to get our wagering dollars to win as he opens at 6 to 1 compared to 2 to 1 for Hit Show. Otherwise these two have about the same probability to win because they just finished one-two in the similar West Virginia Governor’s Stakes when they faced each other in August, with Hit Show prevailing by a half-length. Since then, Hit Show won the Lukas Classic Stakes at Churchill Downs by a neck. However, Hit Show isn’t superior to Heroic Move in terms of how fast he’s run in his best races this year. Hit Show won a third level allowance race in May with a 103 Equibase Speed Figure before a poor performance in the Cornhusker, with no excuse, as the 9 to 5 favorite. He then won the West Virginia Governor’s and the Lukas Classic with 105 and 101 figures. Heroic Move earned a 107 figure winning an allowance race in March at Oaklawn, a 103 figure winning the Sexton Mile Stakes in May and a 104 figure in the West Virginia Governor’s. In that race, in spite of being a half-length behind Hit Show on the wire, Heroic Move ran better in my opinion, as he was four to five paths wide on the turn while Hit Show took the rail, and at the end after Hit Show had opened up, Heroic Move was coming on again.
Handicapper Picks
Win: I think both Heroic Move and Hit Show should be bet to win at 2 to 1 or more, although it may be doubtful Hit Show will make that threshold as he is likely to be the favorite.
Exactas:
Heroic Move, Hit Show over Heroic Move, Hit Show, Tumbarumba, War Campaign
Hit Show over Heroic Move, Tumbarumba, War Campaign
Mother Goose Stakes - Race 10 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) - Post Time 4:51 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Life Talk, Gun Song
Other win contender: Headline Numbers
For second on exacta tickets and third on trifecta tickets: Tarifa, Just Music
Until last year, the Mother Goose Stakes was run in June, and the change to the fall created a new graded stakes for three year old fillies at this time of year and a new race for top trainers and horses to point to. With that in mind we look to the final prep race that last year’s Mother Goose winner, Xigera, used as a springboard to victory, which was the Seneca Stakes at Churchill Downs about five weeks earlier. The only horse in this year’s field coming out of the Seneca Stakes is Life Talk, who closed strongly to be beaten a half-length at the wire and might have won with just a couple more yards to run. Now stretching out from one mile and one-sixteenth to one mile and one-eighth, Life Talk is very likely to improve off the career-best 93 Equibase Speed Figure earned in that race, particularly as she is now making her second start since returning from more than five months off. Better still, last December Life Talk won the Demoiselle Stakes at the distance of the Mother Goose, here at Aqueduct, also when stretching out from a mile and one-sixteenth to a mile and one-eighth. The Seneca was also the second race since trainer Todd Pletcher put blinkers on Life Talk, the other being the race that led to the layoff which can be ignored. As such, Life Talk could improve off her Seneca effort and win this race.
Gun Song will likely be the betting favorite in this race by virtue of her neck defeat at the hands of division leader Thorpedo Anna in the Cotillion Stakes five weeks ago. In that race Gun Song pressed the early leader in second for about three quarters of a mile then took over by a half-length before Thorpedo Anna kicked into high gear. Nevertheless, Gun Song was very game down to the wire. She was disregarded by bettors in the race at 44 to 1 odds even though she had won the Cathryn Sophia Stakes four weeks earlier and finished second in the Monmouth Oaks prior to that. Similar to Life Talk, Gun Song also possesses a win at this mile and one-eighth distance, having won the Black Eyed Susan Stakes in May. That effort earned a 95 figure, which she duplicated in the Monmouth Oaks. Gun Song earned a much stronger 112 figure in the Cotillion, but that might be taken with a grain of salt here because it was so much higher than her previous best efforts. Therefore, comparing her pair of 95 figure efforts in the Monmouth Oaks and Black Eyed Susan to the 93 and 91 figures Life Talk earned in the Seneca Stakes and Demoiselle Stakes, Gun Song may be as fast as Life Talk and certainly can win, but is no standout.
Headline Numbers is a very interesting filly in that she has only run twice in her career, and because she’s trained by Chad Brown (who also saddles Pretty Ana). Headline Numbers made her career debut in July, well after the prep races for the Kentucky Oaks and the Oaks itself, which I’m sure was disappointing for the connections as she won by nearly 12 lengths with speed to spare. Stretching out to the distance of the Mother Goose for her second career start in August, Headline Numbers stalked in second in the early stages, got the lead in the stretch, then came up a half-length short on the wire. However, when the winner was disqualified, Headline Numbers inherited the win. As a daughter of Gun Runner (the same as both Gun Song and Life Talk), this filly has a promising career ahead of her and as she improved from an 88 figure in her debut to 91 and is likely to improve again, Headline Numbers has a shot to post the upset in this race.
Tarifa may be bet to the second or third betting favorite but even though she was third in the Cotillion I was unimpressed by here effort as she was third for the last half-mile, driven very hard but not making any progress. She might finish second but even more likely will be third. Just Music may go to post at high odds in this field as she has never run in a stakes but may be good for a piece and that could help the trifecta (or exacta) to pay very well. She has finished in the top three in her last six races, and has finished second or third in 10 of 15 career starts, including FOUR at this distance, so there’s no doubt she can get the trip.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
First, Life Talk can be considered at odds of 3 to 1 or more. Next, Headline Numbers can be considered at odds of 4 to 1 for a smaller amount. Gun Song has fair odds of 2 to 1 but will likely be much lower odds so we will use her in the win position on exacta tickets to try and make a profit if she wins.
Using a dutching tool, the math is done for you when wagering on multiple horses to win as might be the case here.
Exactas:
Gun Song and Life Talk over Tarifa, Gun Song, Life Talk, Headline Numbers and Just Music
Gun Song, Life Talk and Headline Numbers over Tarifa, Gun Song, Life Talk, Headline Numbers and Just Music
Trifecta:
Gun Song and Life Talk over Tarifa, Gun Song, Life Talk, Headline Numbers and Just Music over Tarifa, Gun Song, Life Talk, Headline Numbers and Just Music
