One Week Out – Breeders’ Cup 2024

We are one week out from the Breeders’ Cup. The early pre entry past performances are out. Speed figures are out and although there are some cross entries and possible defections we have at least an idea of what we will be dealing with come next week. Yes we still have the draw and that can have some impact  on things but if you want to really be prepared I think now is the time to get serious with your preparation.

I am going to talk a bit about one of my biggest influences in handicapping a horse race. We are all looking for an edge and who do you trust as much as you do your own eyes. Replays. Replays. Replays. This is the time to be watching replays and a lot of them.

Watching replays is an art. To master it you have to learn to see things others miss. Most people and remember you are playing against most people, will watch the horse they bet. Even though they watched the race live when they watch the replay many will instinctively watch that same horse. Others watch the leader, the winner, or a horse who gets a big call from the track announcer. There is nothing wrong with any of that but it won’t give you the same kind of edge watching what others aren’t will.

I like to watch a race when things are over with and there is no adrenaline clouding my objectivity. I will look at horses that did not get a call but may have had no room, we’re in uncomfortable spots like an inexperienced horse on a rail with pressure around them. I will look for horses steadying or checking but more importantly unable to get clear or in a position to launch a rally. I like horses who ran good against a true or real bias and even will note a horse who was bias aided as one to downgrade. If you are looking for these things already you know they do not always appear in the past performances. I take a lot of notes and I review them when I finalize my opinions after the draw, scratches and I know the weather and how the track is playing. Mastering the art of replays can only help you in this game. It can’t hurt and we do it diligently at Tracking 💰Trips at Past the Wire.

Our team will be at the Breeders’ Cup with AmWager all week long bring you our unique insight geared  towards helping you be successful. Ride along and you’ll hear things you won’t hear anywhere else. Gran a spot at our annual Breeders’ Cup seminar if you haven’t already.

Let’s see if we can pad the bankroll a bit before the big dance.

Race 8 at Aqueduct on Saturday is the one turn mile Forty Niner stakes. I mention the one turn out of the Big A chute as the one mile race at this years Breeders’ Cup site Del Mar is two turns. I like Messier who is also pre entered in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. This horse always had a lot of potential but he has really come around of late and I look for a big race Saturday. If he produces it as I suspect I will not be surprised to see him wheeled right back a week later in the Breeders’ Cup. Stay tuned.