The Sam F. Davis 2025
Three-year-olds take center stage again this weekend in the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. They will go a mile and a sixteenth around two turns over the quirky and deep Tampa dirt.
Camp Hale goes from the rail as a maiden against winners. It is a big ask for him to break his maiden here, but I won’t be surprised if he gets a small share. He has yet to run a bad race and while he hasn’t sealed the deal yet he is always around the money.
Treaty of Rome is the horse to beat in my opinion. 6-1 on the morning line seems high to me. This colt is improving with distance and gets two turns and an extra sixteenth of a mile here. He was one jump away from winning the Mucho Macho Man at a mile at Gulfstream and ran a bit spotty that day. Nearing the wire, he was running best, and I think he is sitting on his best race to date on Saturday.
John Hancock has only run once but he won and ran fast. He stretches out and moves up in class but with Cox and Prat in his corner he must be given a legit chance despite the lofty goal. He may get taken back for future educational purposes but if he goes and clears as the speed of the speed, he becomes very dangerous in my view. More so if the track is playing speed friendly.
Dr. Ruben M comes out of a key race but looks in deep waters here to me.
Gateskeeper appears to be in over his head.
Owen Almighty will be the favorite and adds blinkers off a DQ in The Pasco over this track. I don’t have any major knocks on him, but he is the favorite and I believe Treaty of Rome is better.
Poster is three for three over two surfaces and at three racetracks. Prat took John Hancock over him, and I question the field he beat in The Remsen. Yes, he looks impressive at first glance, but I need to see one more before I’m sold. One more jump and he gets nailed in The Remsen and again I didn’t think that was a stellar field.
Naughty Rascal looks like a fringe player to me. He may get a piece, but I doubt he gets the win.
Smoken Boy comes in from Puerto Rico as a big question mark off three races that look good including two daylight wins. I question the quality of those races and while a good horse can emerge from anywhere, I’d have to see it to believe it.
Very Bold rounds out the field but is another who looks a cut below some of the others.
I will take Treaty of Rome who I think can wind up one of the better three-year-olds as the season progresses.
