Key Races & Bets for Saturday February 15 AND Sunday February 16, 2025
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Saturday February 15
Royal Delta Stakes - Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:22 PM Eastern
Win contender: Grand Job
Although this race drew 11 horses, Grand Job is a standout and should dominate as a likely “low odds overlay.” She finished second in three of four races in Ireland as a two year old in 2023 then after 13 months off made her U.S. debut in a maiden race at Aqueduct and in a field of eight won about as easily as a horse can win when eased up six lengths ahead on the wire. Coming back a little over four weeks later at a mile at Churchill Downs, Grand Job once again won as she pleased, by eight lengths and in handy fashion. The Equibase Speed Figure was a very strong 105, more than good enough for this grade 3 level, and in a field with no graded stakes winners (unless I missed something) she stands out. She won fresh in October so the two month layoff is of no concern, and although she won both races leading from start to finish, Grand Job finished strongly in both races, for example in her last start she earned an 88 pace figure for the six furlong fraction before accelerating and earning a 105 figure for her final time. She was the 1 to 2 favorite in that allowance race on 12/1, in a six horse field, but with 11 in this race I believe although she might be favored she will go to post at odds much higher than her 50% probability to win, which means she can be bet at EVEN MONEY or more.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Grand Job at even money (1 to 1) or more, a low odds overlay win bet to be sure.
Saturday February 15
Palos Verdes Stakes - Race 7 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:40 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Anarchist, Bartholdy, Big City Lights
At first glance, it appears this race isn’t very playable, as Big City Lights, who won as the 1 to 9 favorite last month in the California Cup Sprint Stakes, has a very high probability of winning, particularly as he won this race last year at odds of 2 to 5. However, both Anarchist and Bartholdy have run as fast as Big City Lights on more than a few occasions, and none of the three have ever run against each other to date.
Anarchist has earned $572K in his career, compared to $578K for Big City Lights, even though Anarchist has only won three races (finishing second seven times) compared to seven wins (and four second place finishes) for Big City Lights. HOWEVER, Anarchist has won at a higher level, having proven victorious in the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Stakes at Del Mar in 2023, the same race Big City Lights could only manage third in last year. Anarchist also finished second in the Grade 2 True North Stakes in 2023, behind Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Elite Power. Both have faced the formidable The Chosen Vron, with Big City Lights coming up short when second four times to that behemoth, while Anarchist missed by a head in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby to The Chosen Vron in the summer of 2023, then fifth last July in the 2024 Bing Crosby. Rested since a third of 15 finish in the $10 million Korea Sprint Stakes last summer, Anarchist could fire a big shot fresh, and repeating his Bing Crosby effort (with a 113 Equibase Speed Figure) or his win in in the Grade 3 Jacques Cartier Stakes in May of 2023 (with a 114 Equibase Speed Figure), he could win this year’s Palos Verdes.
Bartholdy may present the highest odds of the three as he’s never run in a stakes race. He was winless in his first 10 races, but has won three of his last four, all since the claim by Steve Knapp and with Baze aboard as today. After winning at Santa Anita last October with a stakes quality 113 Equibase Speed Figure, he won by four with a 109 figure in December then repeated that effort in December with an easy two length win. Coming into the race, Bartholdy put in a sizzling half-mile drill in 46 flat which was the best of 87 on the day, and he appears to have a legitimate shot to posting the upset here if he runs as well as his last two races.
Big City Lights won last year’s Palos Verdes with a 97 figure pretty low by comparison to what was expected but good enough nonetheless. After finishing third at the grade 3 level in the Triple Bend (99 figure) and Pat O’Brien (118) he moved back into Cal-Bred restricted company and won the Cary Grant last November (119) and the California Cup Sprint last month (110). There’s no knocking how much this horse loves to win, but he’s not unbeatable, particularly in open (not Cal-bred restricted) company, so he’s a poor bet to win as the likely odds-on favorite but still worthy of consideration on pick 3, 4 and exacta tickets we play involving this race.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should absolutely consider win bets on Anarchist odds of 9 to 5 and on Bartholdy at odds of 5 to 2 or more. Big City Lights has minimum odds are 2 to 1 but he is likely to be the odds-on favorite so won’t offer any value.
With it likely TWO horses will be above minimum odds, this race presents a great opportunity for “Dutching” the win bets, meaning to prorate the wagers for the best mathematical edge. Amwager has a great “Dutching” tool, where all you have to do is enter the total amount you want to win, select two (or more horses) and all the math is done for you. This is one of many great tools and perks for bettors at Amwager.
Exacta: Box Anarchist, Bartholdy, Big City Lights
Sunday February 16
Sunland Park Oaks - Race 7 at Sunland Park - Post Time 5:13 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Runnin N Gunnin, Enchanting
I’m going to make a bold prediction that neither horse saddled by Bob Baffert in the Sunland Park Oaks and Sunland Park Derby are going to win. Considering both are likely to be favored this gives us big profit opportunity in both races.
Maysam is the Baffert runner in this race. She won a six and one-half furlong sprint in her one and only start, on January 24, easily by six lengths. However, it was a six horse field, it was a sprint, and it was a maiden race. There is NO evidence she can run as well around two turns and at this mile trip. Her sire, Game Winner, was a great horse but to date his foals have NOT run well in route races (one mile or more) as their record is 1 for 29 to date. The 87 Equibase Speed Figure is by far the fastest in the race BUT it was earned when she led from the half-mile mark to the finish, and in this race Pink Pacific AND Street Colors are stretching out to two turns for the first time the same as Maysam, and both will be trying for the lead from the start as well, perhaps causing Maysam to be too close to a fast pace and susceptible to being run down late.
Both Running N Gunnin and Enchanting can run down the pacesetters to win. Both are daughters of Gun Runner saddled by Asmussen who are bred to run this far and farther and both have shown maturity in relaxing early and running on strongly late. Runnin N Gunnin has won her last two starts around two turns, the last won easily by four lengths. Juarez is named and is TWO for TWO at the meet for Asmussen, both wins coming in stakes one in January and one last week. Enchanting rallied from sixth to win four weeks ago in her second career start and first after three months off. She is bred to run all day and is another likely to run a big race.
Handicapper Picks
Win: At odds of 5 to 2 or more, we should consider win bets on both Runnin N Gunnin and on Enchanting
Exacta: Runnin N Gunnin and Enchanting over Running N Gunnin, Enchanting and Maysam
Sunday February 16
Sunland Park Derby - Race 9 at Sunland Park - Post Time 6:17 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Touchy, Itsmybirthday, Take Charge Tom
Possible contender: Caldera
In this race, Getaway Car is the Baffert runner in this race. He will be bet heavily as he finished second in the Los Alamitos Futurity and second in the American Pharoah Stakes, in two of his last three starts, and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his other recent start. All three represent the only three two turn starts in his career, and in ALL THREE, Getaway Car ran evenly or lost ground in the last eighth of a mile. In short, he really needs to return to one turn but Baffert hasn’t given up yet. Last year Baffert horses finished fifth in the Oaks and sixth in this race and although Getaway Car may finish higher, it is difficult to make the case he’s going to win, let along consider betting him to win at low odds, because he is a horse that has only won when leading from start to finish. In this race, McKinzie Street is also a need-the-lead type, as may be Smash It (who is drawn inside Getaway Car) and perhaps Spenard, who is stretching out from a sprint to a route. None of this bodes well for Getaway car getting the easy trip on the lead he appears to need in order to win.
Touchy is the horse to beat in my opinion. He debuted last summer in a stakes, the Tremont, finishing second after leading in the stretch, then after a fourth place finish in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special, he won easily when moved into a maiden race for the first time. Taking Two and one-half months off to grow up physically and mentally after that race, Touchy made his 2025 debut in the Turfway Preview Stakes, at six and one-half furlongs, where he rallied from sixth to second. He earned a 92 Equibase Speed Figure in that race he’s likely to improve upon markedly in his second race off a layoff, and particularly as a son of Nyquist, Touchy will enjoy this longer trip. Joel Rosario takes the day off from riding at Gulfstream Park to ride this colt for excellent trainer Wesley Ward, who has won with EIGHT of his last SIXTEEN starters stretching out from a sprint to a route. Ward won the Busanda Stakes in New York recently with a shipper, that race a “Road to the Oaks” race similar to this “Road to the Derby” race, and Ward entered, then scratched, Touchy from an allowance race on January 24 to run in this race. The 92 figure earned is only four points below the highest 2025 figure earned by any horse (Caldera), and since we can expect improvement second off the layoff, Touchy could easily run better and win.
Itsmybirthday and Take Charge Tom both from the high percentage Diodoro barn. Take Charge Tom won the local prep for this race, the Riley Allison Derby, four weeks ago with a 95 figure when stretching out from a sprint win at Turf Paradise. He continues to improve and certainly can be a factor again. Itsmybirthday shows an IDENTICAL pattern coming into this race as Take Charge Tom did last month, as he won a sprint at Turf Paradise last month. He earned a 90 figure in that win and since Take Charge Tom improved from 88 to 95 when winning the Allison Stakes, if Itsmybirthday improves by seven points to 97, he’s going to outrun his 20 to 1 starting odds and can absolutely post the upset win particularly if Touchy isn’t up to the task. Itsmybirthday is a son of Vekoma, sire of Jonathan’s Way, who has already won stakes around two turns, so there is little doubt this colt can run this far as well, and Diodoro has won with nearly one-third of his sprint to route starters (12 for 39) over the last three years, including Take Charge Tom last month.
Caldera won easily around two turns when leading from start to finish last month at Oaklawn, earning a strong 96 figure. He had closed from third to second prior to that in his first two turn race but added blinkers for the win so it’s difficult to predict which tactics will be used, and which tactics he may be capable of since blinkers tend to give a horse more early speed. He may also be a bit overmatched as a recent maiden winner in a field of horses (except Spenard) who have faced winners. Nevertheless he is worth a look considering the likely favorite Getaway Car is vulnerable.
Bets-
Win: At odds of 2 to 1 or more, we should consider a win bet on Touchy.
Considering Take Charge Tom and Itsmybirthday both open at well above their 4 to 1 minimum odds, at 8 to 1 and 20 to 1 respectively, both can be considered for win bets as well, at lower amounts than on Touchy, and are a perfect pair to use the DUTCHING tool at Amwager for those agers.
Handicapper Picks
Win: At odds of 2 to 1 or more, we should consider a win bet on Touchy.
Considering Take Charge Tom and Itsmybirthday both open at well above their 4 to 1 minimum odds, at 8 to 1 and 20 to 1 respectively, both can be considered for win bets as well, at lower amounts than on Touchy, and are a perfect pair to use the DUTCHING tool at Amwager for those agers.
Exactas:
Touchy over Itsmybirthday, Getaway Car, Take Charge Tom, Caldera
Touchy, Itsmybirthday and Take Charge Tom over Touchy, Itsmybirthday, Getaway Car, Take Charge Tom, Caldera
