Key Races & Bets for Saturday February 22nd, 2025
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Heavenly Prize Invitational Stakes - Race 3 at Aqueduct - Post Time 1:42 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Patricia Ann, Kid’s Last Laugh, Weigh the Risks
Three of the six can win, the other three having little probability, and I think (am hopeful) the public will overbet one of the three which gives us a nice opportunity for profit. Letting the public decide can often be a sound strategy considering that even though favorites win about 35% of the time, they don’t win nearly two-thirds of the time.
Patricia Ann and Weigh the Risks both won last month at the second allowance level and Kid’s Last Laugh missed by a half-length to Patricia Ann in that race last month. All three horses have run as fast recently, with Patricia Ann earning a 103 Equibase Speed Figure for her half-length win on January 5, Kid’s Last Laugh earning a 102 figure after battling head-and-head from the start until about 200 yards to go, and Weigh the Risks earning a 104 figure in mid-November then a 99 figure last month, that she can improve upon second off the layoff.
Considering Weigh the Risks was sent to post as the 4 to 5 favorite in that race last month and that she is trained by Chad Brown, it’s safe to assume she will be favored, and if odds-on once again that provides value for win bets on both Patricia Ann (who has won three of five races she finished) and Kid’s Last Laugh, who has won or placed in four of six since Dutrow took over training via the 40K claim last January (2024).
Handicapper Picks
Win: Minimum odds for considering a win bet are 2 to 1 on Patricia Ann, Kid’s Last Laugh and Weigh the Risks and I would definitely make a win bet on whichever of the three is the highest odds near post time.
Exacta: Betting the exacta for profit is a tricky in a six horse field, particularly with it being likely Weigh the Risks will be the heavy favorite. I would probably play a small exacta box between Patricia Ann and Kid’s Last Laugh for value because it is fairly probable they will run one-two just as they did on January 5.
Wide Country Stakes - Race 7 at Laurel - Post Time 2:59 PM Eastern
Top win contender: Icona Mama
Icona Mama makes her first start since a dominant nine length win in late November, at six furlongs in a stakes for Pennsylvania breds. Prior to that she was overmatched in the Grade 1 Frizette but right before that was beaten under a length in the Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes. She’s done nothing wrong in her four starts excluding the Frizette and her last Equibase figure of 89, which is likely to be improved upon in her first start as a three year old, makes her the one to beat.
For exacta tickets, Safe Trust, Onyx Ten and Shkhara Fire have a combined record of six wins and eight seconds and one of them should finish second, but can win so we’ll play some tickets both ways.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Icona Mama at odds of 6 to 5 of more, a low odds overlay.
Exactas: Icona Mama over Safe Trust, Onyx Ten and Shkhara Fire
Box Icona Mama and Safe Trust, Box Icona Mama and Onyx Ten, Box Icona Mama and Shkhara Fire
Lightning City Stakes - Race 8 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 3:58 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Sol Hope, Risk Threshold
Sol Hope ships over from Gulfstream for Saffie Joseph, Jr., and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr, who, oddly enough in spite of winning one-third of time for Joseph hasn’t ridden for him at Tampa in the past year. The mare joined the barn in late October and won an identical five furlong turf sprint, with a very strong 96 Equibase Speed Figure. After two and one-half months off, she rallied to finish third AFTER significant traffic trouble on the turn, or might have won, as the nine to five favorite. This field is no tougher than that one and with a clean trip she can run back to that race from last fall and win, adding to Joseph’s really good record of 22 for 99 the last three years with starts at Tampa including six stakes wins.
Risk Threshold is a lightly raced mare trained by Chard Brown who has only missed the board one time in six races, all on turf. Her best efforts have come at six furlongs and she’s running at this five furlong trip for the first time but I don’t think that will make much of a difference. She may be the fastest early in the race and earned both her wins to date leading from start to finish, the best two earning 96 and 97 figures on par with the recent best Sol Hope earned so she’s the other main contender to win this race.
Handicapper Picks
Win: At odds of 9 to 5 or more, we should consider win bets on both Sol Hope and Risk Threshold
With it possible TWO horses may be above minimum odds, this race presents a great opportunity for “Dutching” the win bets, meaning to prorate the wagers for the best mathematical edge. Amwager has a great “Dutching” tool, where all you have to do is enter the total amount you want to win, select two (or more horses) and all the math is done for you. This is one of many great tools and perks for bettors at Amwager.
Exactas:
Box Sol Hope and Risk Threshold
Sol Hope and Risk Threshold over ALL
Turf Dash Stakes - Race 10 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 4:58 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Isivunguvungu, Reef Runner, Our Shot, American Monarch
Isivunguvungu shipped half-way across the world this past winter from South Africa to the U.S. He had won six of 14 on turf including a pair of group 1 stakes races and won the Da Hoss Stakes in his U.S. debut last summer. He was so highly regarded his second U.S. start came in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, where in spite of finishing seventh he was beaten just two lengths for the win. Considering he won a similar stakes in September off an eight month layoff, the three and one-half month layoff he’s returning from is no problem, as he’s been working very well on the turf at Palm Meadows for Graham Motion, who has won five of 20 races at Tampa so far this meeting.
Reef Runner made up a ton of ground when rallying from eighth (and seven lengths back) to miss by a length when third in the similar Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint four weeks ago. He won an off-turf stakes at this distance in September and Vasquez has been up for his last two wins and accompanies him across the state on the heels of a scintillating half-mile workout which was the fifth best of 124 on the day. He rarely runs a bad race and must be respected.
Our Shot returns from five months off and was last seen winning the much higher level Grade 2 Woodford Stakes on the grass at Keeneland. He’s been working well but unlike Isivunguvungu he didn’t win off his last layoff. Just the same, he gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. and has won or missed by inches in his last three turf sprints, two of those stakes, so is another to be reckoned with.
American Monarch only ran on turf once in the past two years, and that was a fantastic effort when finishing fast for second in the Elusive Quality Stakes last May at Aqueduct. He’s been off since July but Mott appears to have him in top shape and gets Centeno to ride, with Mott having used Centeno on similar shippers from Gulfstream six times in the last two years, winning twice. This is another horse who fires nearly every time he runs and who appears ready to run well enough to win.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Isivunguvungu can be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or more. The other three can be considered for win bets at 7 to 2 or more.
Using the fantastic dutching tool at Amwager, I would have no hesitation to bet two, or even three, of the four win contenders particularly if a couple of them are five to one or more.
Exactas: Box Isivunguvungu, Reef Runner, Our Shot and American Monarch
