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Key Races & Bets for Saturday April 12th, 2025

Heavenly Cause Stakes – Race 6 at Laurel – Post Time 2:29 PM Eastern Top win contenders: Royal Spa, Takethemoneyhoney, Catherine Wheel, Vincey Girl Royal Spa shipped from Oaklawn to Laurel to run in the identical Barbara Fritchie Stakes in February and ran into a buzzsaw in Irish Maxima, who...

Key Races & Bets for Saturday April 12th, 2025

Heavenly Cause Stakes - Race 6 at Laurel - Post Time 2:29 PM Eastern

Top win contenders: Royal Spa, Takethemoneyhoney, Catherine Wheel, Vincey Girl

Royal Spa shipped from Oaklawn to Laurel to run in the identical Barbara Fritchie Stakes in February and ran into a buzzsaw in Irish Maxima, who then came right back to win the Grade 3 Distaff Stakes at Aqueduct recently, at the distance of this race as well. Royal Spa was entered in the Distaff and wisely scratched out of this race. The effort she put in when second in the Barbara Fritchie is good enough to win here if repeated and she ships back to Laurel from trainer Brisset’s home base at Keeneland so she is very well intended in this situation.

Takethemoneyhoney and Catherine Wheel finished second and first, respectively, when separated by a nose on the wire four weeks ago at Aqueduct in a one turn mile race that, although an allowance race, earned the pair 100 Equibase Speed Figures which are on par with the 101 figure Royal Spa earned in the Barbara Fritchie. Both fillies should run as well or better in this situation, perhaps Takethemoneyhoney a bit better, because in this field she could be the only horse which wants the lead from the start and so she may be able to get to the lead easily in the early stages and get very courageous. It must also be noted that Catherine Wheel is entered in a the Top Flight Stakes at Aqueduct today, so it may be she remains in New York, but if not she has a big shot to repeat or improve upon her effort last month as it was her second start since coming back from a year on the sidelines.

Vincey Girl just ran the best race of her life on March 12, following six months off, and can improve to be competitive at this level. She earned a 95 figure and that compelled good trainer D’Angelo to ship her from Florida to compete. Vasquez is three for three when aboard the filly and takes off a day at Gulfstream Park to come to Laurel to ride her, which is a pretty big sign she could run an “A” race good enough to win.

Handicapper Picks

Win: With four fillies and mares so closely matched, we should set a threshold for betting the two at the highest odds, then wager depending on the public, remembering the public at large may make mistakes we can capitalize on for profit. In this case, as I give slight preference to Royal Spa, I would first consider her for a win bet at 5 to 2 or more. Then, if Royal Spa is my first win bet, I would consider one or two of the other three for win bets at 3 to 1 or 7 to 2 or higher.

When presented with the opportunity to wager on more than one horse to win, we can gain the best mathematical edge possible by using a “Dutching” tool to prorate our wagers. There is a free Dutching tool at Amwager where all we have to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.

Top Flight Invitational Stakes - Race 7 at Aqueduct - Post Time 4:22 PM Eastern

Win contenders: Alpine Princess, Fade to Grey

I am making an assumption Catherine Wheel, who is entered in this race as well as the Heavenly Cause Stakes at Laurel, may opt for that spot. If she does not she should be considered a contender in this field as well.

Based on that assumption, Alpine Princess is the one to beat, based on the fact she’s dropping from two straight graded stakes races, one in which she finished second, beaten a nose, to this non-graded level. Better still, those two were at Oaklawn Park and Sam Houston, and the last time the filly ran at Aqueduct, she missed by a head in the Grade 3 Comely Stakes in November, at this nine furlong trip. Alpine Princess won three of five before that, including two stakes, and ALL THREE WINS were with Geroux in the saddle, who gets on today after three races with other jockeys. Considering Geroux has been responsible for three of her four career wins, Alpine Princess could be very tough in this situation, particularly if she runs back to her Comely effort.

Fade to Grey shoots for her third win in a row, both recent with Carmouche (who recently earned his 4000th career win) in the saddle as today. This four year old is getting better with every race and her win one race before last, like the best recent effort of Alpine Princess, came at this nine furlong trip over this track.

Handicapper Picks

Win: Alpine Princess at odds of 8 to 5 or more, a low odds overlay win bet.
If she is well below those odds, I would consider a win bet on Fade to Grey at 9 to 5 or higher.

Jenny Wiley Stakes - Race 10 at Keeneland - Post Time 5:48 PM Eastern

Top Win contenders: Excellent Truth, Jabaara

This is a phenomenal renewal of the Jenny Wiley Stakes, with ALL nine fillies stakes winners. That being said there are three European imports all shipping in for this prestigious race, and as is nearly always the case, European runners have an edge over North American based horses on turf due to the company they’ve been facing being tougher. As an example, a European group 3 stakes is like a North American grade 2 and a European group 2 is equivalent of a North American grade 1. Considering all three imports have excellent form in group 2 or group 1 races, they have an edge.

I’ll start with Excellent Truth, last seen in July and purchased for $1,750,000 last December after amassing a very good record of 4-3-1 in 11 races in France. The best of those came in her last start in France, in July, where she finished second to an incredibly good horse names Mqse de Sevigne, who has a career record of 8-6-1 in 18 races including five Group 1 stakes wins. Excellent Truth beat an exceptional horse in Blue Rose Cen in that race, the Group 1 Prix Rothschild. Blue Rose Cen has earned $1.7 million winning four Group 1 races and eight of 17 starts. Excellent Truth runs well from one mile to a mile and one-quarter and gets red hot Flavien Prat to ride for the Chad Brown barn, so we could se an incredible performance.

Similarly, Jabaara ships in for Godolphin and one of the top trainers in the world in Roger Varian. She has a record of 3-3-1 in 11 races including when winning a group 3 stakes in July before being disqualified for interference and placed second. The horse she beat in that race, Raqiya, has won five of nine races including a pair of group 3 stakes. Prior to that, Jabaara ran second in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes behind another incredible turf filly in Porta Fortuna, winner of seven of 12 for $1.6 million including four group 1 wins. Unlike Excellent Truth, who returns from eight months off (but for Chad Brown, who wins a lot of race with horses coming back from long layoffs), Jabaara had a comeback race just five weeks ago in Great Britain where she finished fourth of seven but may have won as she was IMPEDED with about 100 yards to go.

All the other seven can run too, including another European import in Choisy who won two group 2 stakes in a row in Meydan (in Dubai) this year, but against five horse fields. Be Your Best won the grade 2 Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf Invitational when last seen in January, with Sacred Wish inches behind in second, while Vina Arana won her North American Debut last August after a big finish to miss by less than a length in a group three stakes in Ireland. The rest also can run well, but the two European imports above appear to have a class edge.

Handicapper Picks

Win: Thinking about win probabilities, I think both Excellent Truth and Jabaara are playable at low odds considering their chances of winning. As I expect Excellent Truth to go to post near her starting odds of 5 to 2 and Jabaara to be lower odds than her 9 to 2 starting odds, I would bet Excellent Truth to win at odds of 8 to 5 or more, and I would also bet Jabaara at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Exacta: Excellent Truth and Jabaara over ALL.

Ellis Starr

Ellis is available @Ubercapper and is a renowned Public handicapper, blogger, speaker, fan educator of horse racing. In 2025, Ellis finished 34th in the National Handicapping Contest (NHC) earning him $14,500 in prize money!
Ellis provides analysis on key stakes races so check back often and keep an eye on his value lines and his advice on dutching your picks. Value is important when deciding who to bet and how much to bet.

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