Key Horse Races & Expert Handicapper Bets - March 20, 2021
Race 9 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:16 PM Eastern
This excellent allowance race kicks of a fine three race sequence including two stakes races. The top two win contenders here are Sambracer and Tiesto in a race which the morning line favorite is 4/1, which tells us how wide open the race is.
Sambracer won his career debut back in January, 2019, in a two turn race on turf at Gulfstream Park just like this one, leading from start to finish. He stayed in an off-turf race the next month, ran fourth and took two years off. Returning last month (2/12), Sambracer won even more easily than he did in his debut, also on the turf at Gulfstream, at a mile. He led from the start, opened up, then tired a bit as expected after being away from the races for two years, still almost two lengths clear of the runner-up. Nevertheless that effort earned a 95 Equibase Speed Figure, very likely to be improved upon second off the layoff. The top last out figures in this race are 102, 100 and 99 so any improvement by Sambracer leapfrogs the others, plus he appears to once again by a lone frontrunner, and he put in a sparkling half-mile work for McGaughey since his last race to signal he’s in tip-top form.
Tiesto, like Sambracer, won his career debut in a two-turn turf race, in the summer of 2019 at Belmont. He showed a lot of maturity for a first time starter rallying from fourth in that race. Stepped right into stakes company he ran poorly when sixth but when given two months off and returning 13 months ago, Tiesto ran BIG to be second in the Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream. Three months later he rallied from 10th to third at this level on grass than his connections got cute and decided to try dirt and top company in the Blue Grass Stakes last summer at Keeneland, in which he was eighth and vanned off. Showing he’s recovered from that with a series of fine works for Mott, back on grass and at the right level and having proven capable of winning around two turns on grass fresh, Tiesto is the other horse in this race with the bulk of the probability to win.
Contenders for second and third on exacta and trifecta tickets are Tulfarris (third in a similar race last month), Glynn County (fourth against similar when last seen), Kaufy Bean (fourth versus similar last month), Advanced Strategy (winner on turf in his maiden breaker last summer versus New York breds only) and Mystic Lancelot (third versus similar in January).
Handicapper Picks
Win: Sambracer and Tiesto to win at odds of 5/2 or more.
When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exacta: Sambracer and Tiesto over Sambracer, Tiesto, Tulfarris, Glynn County, Kaufy Bean, Advanced Strategy and Mystic Lancelot.
Optionally, play the same horses in third position as in second position above for the trifecta.
Double:
Race 9: Sambracer, Tiesto
Race 10: Cory Gal, Sonar, Pacific Gale, Saguaro Row
Pick 3:
Race 9: Sambracer, Tiesto
Race 10: Cory Gal, Sonar, Pacific Gale, Saguaro Row
Race 11: Field Day, Kasim, No Que No
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Race 9 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:16 PM Eastern
This excellent allowance race kicks of a fine three race sequence including two stakes races. The top two win contenders here are Sambracer and Tiesto in a race which the morning line favorite is 4/1, which tells us how wide open the race is.
Sambracer won his career debut back in January, 2019, in a two turn race on turf at Gulfstream Park just like this one, leading from start to finish. He stayed in an off-turf race the next month, ran fourth and took two years off. Returning last month (2/12), Sambracer won even more easily than he did in his debut, also on the turf at Gulfstream, at a mile. He led from the start, opened up, then tired a bit as expected after being away from the races for two years, still almost two lengths clear of the runner-up. Nevertheless that effort earned a 95 Equibase Speed Figure, very likely to be improved upon second off the layoff. The top last out figures in this race are 102, 100 and 99 so any improvement by Sambracer leapfrogs the others, plus he appears to once again by a lone frontrunner, and he put in a sparkling half-mile work for McGaughey since his last race to signal he’s in tip-top form.
Tiesto, like Sambracer, won his career debut in a two-turn turf race, in the summer of 2019 at Belmont. He showed a lot of maturity for a first time starter rallying from fourth in that race. Stepped right into stakes company he ran poorly when sixth but when given two months off and returning 13 months ago, Tiesto ran BIG to be second in the Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream. Three months later he rallied from 10th to third at this level on grass than his connections got cute and decided to try dirt and top company in the Blue Grass Stakes last summer at Keeneland, in which he was eighth and vanned off. Showing he’s recovered from that with a series of fine works for Mott, back on grass and at the right level and having proven capable of winning around two turns on grass fresh, Tiesto is the other horse in this race with the bulk of the probability to win.
Contenders for second and third on exacta and trifecta tickets are Tulfarris (third in a similar race last month), Glynn County (fourth against similar when last seen), Kaufy Bean (fourth versus similar last month), Advanced Strategy (winner on turf in his maiden breaker last summer versus New York breds only) and Mystic Lancelot (third versus similar in January).
Handicapper Picks
Win: Sambracer and Tiesto to win at odds of 5/2 or more.
When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exacta: Sambracer and Tiesto over Sambracer, Tiesto, Tulfarris, Glynn County, Kaufy Bean, Advanced Strategy and Mystic Lancelot.
Optionally, play the same horses in third position as in second position above for the trifecta.
Double:
Race 9: Sambracer, Tiesto
Race 10: Cory Gal, Sonar, Pacific Gale, Saguaro Row
Pick 3:
Race 9: Sambracer, Tiesto
Race 10: Cory Gal, Sonar, Pacific Gale, Saguaro Row
Race 11: Field Day, Kasim, No Que No
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Hurricane Bertie Stakes – Race 10 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:48 PM Eastern
The top win contenders are Cory Gal and Sonar, both offering value for win bets. The other win contenders, not offering value for win bets, are Pacific Gale and Saguaro Row.
Cory Gal is the LONE FRONT RUNNER in the field and any other horse which might try to go with her early is only destroying their own chances so it is doubtful any trainer or jockey will be taking up such tactics. Winner of six of 10 races last year, Cory Gal returned from nearly five months off three weeks ago and led from the start, only to be run down late and beaten a half-length by Sonar. Likely to be much tighter second off the layoff and back at the six and one-half furlong distance of her eight length win over the track last Summer, Cory Gal is the one to catch and to beat.
That being said, Sonar won nicely after stalking in second and although she is winless in three races past six furlongs she’s only run 11 times and could repeat, or improve upon, that last effort. This is particularly true since the win came off the trainer change to Carlos David. Being as she won at 14/1 last time out her 12/1 odds are way out of line for a horse with a very strong probability to win.
Pacific Gale (2/1 starting odds) and Saguaro Row (7/2) both must be used on exacta, trifecta, double and pick 3 tickets played involving this race but neither can be bet at those odds compared to the value offered (versus odds suggested by probability) on Cory Gal and Sonar. Pacific Gale posted the 16/1 upset in the higher level grade 2 Inside Information Stakes on 1/23 over the track but hadn’t won in ages before that although she did have five second or third place finishes in nine tries last year. She could run well again or she could revert to so-so form. Saguaro Row has won just once this year and last but then again she’s only run four times. Returning from an eight month layoff in December, she finished fourth, then third, in stakes at Aqueduct but both her last two wins came at seven furlongs so if in the mood this trip could hit her right between the eyes because before those last three she had a five for 13 record overall.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Cory Gal and Sonar to win at odds of 3/1
This too is the perfect race for using a “Dutching” tool like the free one at Amwager, because it will allocate the win bets based on odds, putting more on the lower odds horse automatically. That is just one of many other great features and perks at Amwager.com.
Exacta & Trifecta: Box Cory Gal, Sonar, Pacific Gale and Saguaro Row
Double:
Race 10: Cory Gal, Sonar, Pacific Gale, Saguaro Row
Race 11: Field Day, Kasim, No Que No
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Texas Glitter Stakes – Race 11 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:22 PM Eastern
There is speed galore in this race, with rail sitting Carimba coming back from six months off and having led from start to finish in both starts last year, both turf sprints. Just outside of her in the two post is Dr. Duke, also a need-the-lead type, as is Nitro Time AND Warrior’s Pride (adding blinkers).
When the dust settles after early fractions potentially as fast as 21 flat and 43.8, No Que No, Field Day and Kasim look very likely to get the major awards. I’ll start with No Que No, opening at 6/1. He rallied for second behind Field Day 10 days ago at the distance on turf and there are two reasons he may be able to turn the tables on Field Day in this situation. The first is last time out he was on the rail and inside of Field Day so didn’t get the same trip that one did stalking the speed then drawing off by two lengths. The other is he hit the rail a bit out of the gate and may have lost a bit of momentum which at five furlongs can be important. Two before that, No Que No won a turf sprint over the track and as opposed to the race 10 days ago this time the colt may be able to sit a perfect trip off the fast pace and get up in time.
Field Day is no slouch as he showed a new dimension last time out sitting outside the early pacesetter then taking over late. He’s never been worse than second in four turf sprints and if he takes up the catbird seat behind the likely dueling leaders he could easily or repeat his last effort.
Kasim was fourth in a race at this five furlong turf trip last month, beaten a neck and a nose for second, and he was finishing FAST late from five lengths back at the top of the stretch. Before that he rallied nicely from fourth to win at this distance and if he can run back to that effort, with no reason he can’t, he can post the upset as well, opening at the same 6/1 odds as No Que No.
Handicapper Picks
Win: No Que No and Kasim to win at 5/2 or more. (Field Day is likely to be bet lower than that from his 3/1 odds so is better used as a win contender in the exacta).
Exacta: Box No Que No, Kasim and Field Day
