February 3rd – Thrilling Picks Select Picks
Gulfstream – February 3rd
0.50 PICK 5
RC6 # 1, 4, 6
RC7 # 2, 7
RC8 # 5, 9
RC9 # 4, 6, 8
RC10 # 1, 4, 6
Cost $54
0.50 PICK3
RC6 # 2, 6
RC7 # 2
RC8 # 5, 9, 2, 4
Cost $4
0.50 PICK 4
RC7 # 2, 7
RC8 # 2, 4
RC9 # 4, 6, 8
RC10 # 1, 4, 6
Cost $18
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RC6
Must Use #1, 4, 6
Stretch/Wildcards # 2 a debut runner
#6 Gaga Oh La La has the speed advantage. When present in past runners for this race type, this speed attribute helped 71% of those horses earn 2nd place. However, only won 36% of horses with this advantage actually won. So #6 winning is not a guarantee.
Of the other experienced horses, #1 I’m CoCo Pebbles and #4 Piper pose the biggest threats.
RC7 #2, 7
#2 Cordington has the speed and late pace advantage. When these advantages were present in past horses, they won this race type 66% of the time. The only real threat should come from the #7 Nymues Treasure which has the InTheMoneyPercent advantage.
Based on rank for avg. last 3 purse and earnings at this distance, the #8 Something Magical resembles 75% of horses that earned 2nd place WHEN THEY ALSO had the turf earnings advantage.
HOW WE’RE BETTING
EXACTA #2, 7, 8
There should be a bit of a difference in odds between the overlooked #8 and the two ML favorites #2 & #7. Playing an exacta box will be throwing money out the window. So to maximize our bankroll we will dutch the wager within AMWager.com
Assume it will look something like
$2 EXACTA #2, 7 w/ 2, 7
$1 EXACTA #2, 7 w/ 8
$1 EXACTA #8 w/2, 7
RC8
Must Use #5, 9
Contenders #2, 4
RC9
Must Use #4, 6, 8
For this race profile these are the attributes we found present in past winners: Avg Speed Last 3 races, Avg E2 Pace, Avg Late Pace, Last Turn Time. Modeling those attributes, no surprise the horses that look best for this allowance race are the chalk #4, 6, 8
The real benefit in this model – we can preserve our bankroll excluding Chad Brown’s #2 Velvet Crush from the win position in any of our tickets. Meanwhile a good chunk of the betting public will pile into the #2 because of the trainer’s clout.
RC10
Must Use #4, 6
Stretch / Wildcard #1
To win this Maiden SpWght. past winners ranked in the top two for last purse and top four for jockey current year rank. No surprise the #4 and #6 both meet these requirements.
Debut Runner #1 Big Band Luzziann is question mark. Should we stretch our bankroll on it?
Fillies from the Big Band Sound have never won first time out. However progeny from the dam sire, SongAndAPrayer have won 100% of their debut runs at this purse level WHEN their trainer & jockey were both top ranked for that meet. #1 Big Band Luzzian meets this criteria, trained by Anthony Granite and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.
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