Key Races & Bets for Saturday December 23rd, 2023
Tropical Park Oaks – Race 8 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 3:36 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Startup Mentality, Implicated, Be My Sunshine
For exactas (second position): Cairo Consort, Breath Away
Startup Mentality and Implicated (both trained by Chad Brown) finished third and first, respectively, in the higher level Grade 3 Pebbles Stakes last month in New York, and Startup Mentality had a much tougher trip so gets slight preference over her stablemate today. Startup Mentality had won around two turns in her July debut and had been off for nearly four months, while Implicated had run just three weeks earlier, so was giving away experience and recency as well. In the Pebbles, Startup Mentality, who was more favored by bettors at 7 to 2 as compared to 10 to 1 for Implicated, took back to eighth of nine early and had to rally six wide. After losing ground badly on the turn she was still seventh with an eighth of a mile to go while Implicated had a dream trip on the inside. Startup Mentality really got going in the final sixteenth and was beaten just three-quarters of a length. Implicated had also won the Chelsey Flower Stakes on the grass in the fall of 2022 and she is making her third start off a layoff whereas Startup Mentality is making her second so both gals figure prominently here.
Be My Sunshine ran the best race of her career over the Gulfstream Park turf course three weeks ago, stalking in third in the early stages then opening up two lengths near the top of the stretch before coasting home. That effort earned a 96 Equibase Speed Figure on par with the 94 and 96 figures earned by Startup Mentality and Implicated, respectively, in the Pebbles and repeating that effort appears possible and makes her competitive for top honors if she does.
Cairo Consort returns from nearly eight months off and could be a bit short of 100% fit to compete with horses which have run more recently. She was second in the Appalachian Stakes this spring and a nose and a head from winning the Herecomesthebride Stakes on the Gulfstream turf course in March so fits with these except for the time off. Breath Away finished second in the similar Hilltop Stakes in May before a poor effort in June and then on 11/5 following four months off. However, she did rally mid-race from fourth to second into a wire-to-wire winner and if ridden like she was in the Hilltop when closing from eighth to second may complete the exacta.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Startup Mentality and Implicated can and should be bet to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more. Be My Sunshine can be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or higher.
When considering win bets on more than one horse, an advantage lies in using a “Dutching” tool. There’s a free “Dutching” tool at Amwager, which allows us to set the total amount we want to bet, then prorates our wagers for the best mathematical edge. This is just one of many tools, and perks, available for racing fans at Amwager.
Exactas:
Implicated and Startup Mentality over Implicated, Startup Mentality, Cairo Consort, Breath Away and Be My Sunshine
Also Implicated, Startup Mentality and Be My Sunshine over Implicated, Startup Mentality, Cairo Consort, Breath Away and Be My Sunshine
Doubles:
Race 8: Implicated, Startup Mentality and Be My Sunshine
Race 9: My Destiny
Pick 3:
Race 8: Implicated, Startup Mentality and Be My Sunshine
Race 9: My Destiny
Race 10: Great Navigator, Gilmore, Long Range Toddy
Get up to $150 signup bonus and cashback rewards when you bet with AmWager.
Sugar Swirl Stakes – Race 9 at Gulfstream Park -Post Time 4:06 PM Eastern
Win contenders: My Destiny
For exactas (second position): Bluefield, Intrepid Daydream, Headland, Spirit Wind
My Destiny loves to win races and loves Gulfstream. She has won 9 of 21 on conventional dirt and four of 10 on the main track at Gulfstream. The most recent of those wins came in March then she was badly overmatched in a grade 1 stakes race at Churchill Downs on Derby day. She returned to winning form when shipped to California in July then won by five in Oklahoma in September before coming up a neck shy of winning a $100K stakes race last month in Ohio. Gonzalez has been up for three of her last four wins and the 102 Equibase Speed Figure she earned winning the Flashy Lady Handicap in September (one before last), and before being flattered by the runner-up winning her next start, is more than good enough to win this year’s Sugar Swirl Stakes if repeated, and it should be considering her most recent workout at GP on 12/15 was a strong 47 flat half-mile bullet (best of the day).
Handicapper Picks
Win: My Destiny at odds of 8 to 5 or higher, a low odds overlay win bet.
Exactas: My Destiny over Bluefield, Intrepid Daydream, Headland, Spirit Wind
Doubles:
Race 9: My Destiny
Race 10: Great Navigator, Gilmore, Long Range Toddy
Pick 3:
Race 9: My Destiny
Race 10: Great Navigator, Gilmore, Long Range Toddy
Race 11: April Fools Andy, Ohana Honor
Get up to $150 signup bonus and cashback rewards when you bet with AmWager.
Mr. Prospector Stakes – Race 10 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:36 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Gilmore, Long Range Toddy, Great Navigator
For second on exacta tickets: Winfromwithin
Gilmore takes a big drop in class from grade 1 stakes to grade 3 as well as cuts back from one mile and one-eighth to seven furlongs. Those two changes suggest he can run as well as he did when third in the Woody Stephens Stakes in June when he earned a career best 110 Equibase Speed Figure. Following that he ran poorly in the Amsterdam Stakes in July but he rebounded to a strong 105 figure effort winning a one turn mile race at Saratoga in August. Both the 110 and 105 figures are the best earned by any horse in the field on dirt in 2023 except for the 106 figure Scaramouche earned when fifth on a sloppy track in October, which I feel is not representative of how well he can run in this race. Per a Race Lens query, trainer Brendan Walsh has a pretty good record of 11 for 47 (23%) cutting his horses back from a route to a sprint over the last four years. Jockey Jose Ortiz rode Gilmore just once previously, when rallying him from seven lengths back to just over a length when finishing second in the Bay Shore Stakes in April at the distance of the Mr. Prospector. So in summary, having run the fastest on dirt of any horse in the field, with Walsh’s excellent route to sprint statistics and with Jose Ortiz getting back on, Gilmore appears very capable of winning this race.
Long Range Toddy won back-to-back stakes races as a two year old in 2018, starting with the Clever Trevor Stakes at the distance of the Mr. Prospector. He got on the Derby trail in a big way in April, 2019 with a win in the Rebel Stakes but ran poorly in both the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby thereafter. He did not win his next 27 races, but ran very well in a couple of those particularly when beaten a neck in the Phoenix Stakes in the fall of 2022, with a 102 speed figure. Following four poor efforts, Long Range Toddy was given three months off and transferred to the barn of his current trainer, Victor Barboza, Jr. The change in scenery appears to have really paid off, with Long Range Toddy running two winning races in a row, the most recent in August earning him a 104 figure. The first of the two wins came at seven furlongs and off a layoff, so returning from a layoff at the same distance and with jockey Jaramillo aboard the same as for his last two wins, Long Range Toddy must be considered a strong contender in this year’s Mr. Prospector Stakes.
Great Navigator has really improved in the fall of his three year old campaign, first with a 10 length win in the Charles Hesse III Handicap in September around two turns with a 100 speed figure, then upon cutting back to this seven furlong trip in the Vosburgh Stakes with a career-best 104 figure. The Vosburgh has turned out to be a very productive race, with winner Cody’s Wish returning to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile in his next race and with the second, fourth and fifth place finishers finishing in-the-money in stakes races in their subsequent starts. Getting the ground saving rail for the Mr. Prospector Stakes, Great Navigator is likely to be in a great off-the-pace position in the early stages, and with any further improvement off his last two races can be expected to run good enough to win.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Gilmore and Long Range Toddy at 2 to 1 or more, Great Navigator at 3 to 1 or higher.
This is another race where the free (and easy to use) Dutching Tool at Amwager should come in very handy.
Exactas:
Box Gilmore, Long Range Toddy, Great Navigator
Also Gilmore, Long Range Toddy, Great Navigator over Gilmore, Long Range Toddy, Great Navigator, Winfromwithin
Doubles:
Race 10: Great Navigator, Gilmore, Long Range Toddy
Race 11: April Fools Andy, Ohana Honor
Get up to $150 signup bonus and cashback rewards when you bet with AmWager.
Tropical Park Derby – Race 11 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:06 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: April Fools Andy, Ohana Honor
Contenders for second on exacta tickets: Eyes on the King, Anglophile, Souper Blessing, Smokey Mandate, Amstrong, Irish Aces
April Fools Andy has run 12 times this year BUT only three times on turf. He’s won ALL THREE of those, including two in a row. The first of the two was a two-turn first level allowance race on 10/12 where he trailed in a field of 10 early before unleashing a powerful rally to go from sixth to first on the turn then drew off by five. April Fools Andy ran even better two months later and just two weeks ago on December 9 when ninth of 10 early and once again displaying a powerful turn of foot to go from sixth with a quarter mile to run to lead by two lengths with an eighth of a mile to go then showed even more kick to win by five. That last win, at Tampa Bay Downs, earned a 101 Equibase Speed Figure which is stakes quality, as evidenced by the 103 figure Anglophile earned when missing by a neck in the Dueling Grounds Derby Preview Stakes this summer and the 104 figure Smokey Mandate earned when second in the Jefferson Cup Stakes in September. Cedeno has been up for both wins and rides back and it sure does appear April Fools Andy can win his third in a row and perhaps a decent odds.
Ohana Honor is another who has really come into his best form of late. He returned from a two month layoff in August to win a seven furlong sprint on dirt then moved to turf and won easily the next month. Shipping to New York for the Gio Ponti Stakes, versus three year olds only as he’s facing here, Ohana Honor rallied strongly from fifth to second, only a length from the winner at the end. He’s earned 96 and 97 figures in his last two and may take another step forward with Gaffalione riding for Shug McGaughey, so is the other horse in this field with the bulk of the probability to win.
Handicapper Picks
Win: April Fools Andy and Ohana Honor should be considered for win bets at 2 to 1 odds or higher.
If both horses are at or above that threshold, this is yet another race where the free (and easy to use) Dutching Tool at Amwager really helps us get an edge when wagering.
Exactas:
Box April Fools Andy and Ohana Honor
Also April Fools Andy and Ohana Honor over April Fools Andy, Ohana Honor, Eyes on the King, Anglophile, Souper Blessing, Smokey Mandate, Amstrong, Irish Aces
