Woodhaven Stakes - Race 6 at Aqueduct - Post Time 3:50 PM Eastern
Win contenders: End of Romance, Revolutionnaire
End of Romance won two of three in Great Britain, on turf and on all-weather, then took five months off and made his U.S. debut on March 22 in the Rushaway Stakes on all-weather at Turfway Park, where he closed well from last of eight to get third at the end while in need of a race after the layoff. He’s going to be much more fit today and the move to turf is of no concern as he put in a very strong workout at trainer Graham Motion’s Fair Hills base eight days ago which was the second fastest of 28 on the day for a half-mile. He also adds blinkers which are designed to have him a bit closer up in the early stages than he was in the Rushaway when last of eight after a quarter mile. RED HOT Manny Franco takes the call and has won four of 10 for Motion at Aqueduct over the past 16 months, going back to January 1, 2024 so that is another factor in favor of End of Romance improving off his last effort to win. If the race should come off grass and be run on dirt, he can still win as his sire, although from Great Britian, has produced dirt route winners in North America.
Revolutionnaire also imported from Europe and made his first U.S. start this year. He had run six times in his native France, winning once and finishing in the top three in five other races, missing the board only in his career debut last March. He has run exclusively on grass, including his U.S. debut last month when third of seven in the Columbia Stakes, Just like End of Romance, Revolutionnaire rallied from last (of seven) to get third, and he should improve physically and mentally off that effort.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
BOTH End of Romance and Revolutionnaire have fair (minimum) odds of 9 to 5 and if the race stays on turf I would bet the one with the highest odds above that minimum. “IF” the race moves to dirt, I’m only interested in End of Romance and would be him at odds of 3 to 2 or more.
Exacta: Box End of Romance and Revolutionnaire
Monroe Stakes - Race 9 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:09 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Life’s an Audible, Ozara
Contenders for exacta tickets: Dancing N Dixie, Breath Away
Life’s an Audible threw in clunkers in two of her last five races, but the other three were “A” efforts good enough to win this race if repeated. Considering her pattern of (starting three races back) of ninth, first, and ninth, and considering Pletcher enters her in this stakes, she should run well. In march of last year, Life’s an Audible rallied from sixth (among eight) and missed by a neck in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes, after winning the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant Stakes, so her best race is good enough to win this non-graded stakes. Pletcher goes to Zayas for the first time and they are 12 for 48 together over the last 12 months, which is another good sign.
Ozara is one of two from the Clement barn, the other being Breath Away. Breath Away has finished fifth, fourth and third in her last three races, two of those at Gulfstream, and is having trouble finding top form, while Ozara won on January 3 on the grass following nine months off then faded to sixth after being up close in third in the early stages of the Honey Fox Stakes last month. She gets Jaramillo for the first time, who does very well when riding for Clement, and considering her 2-1-1 record in five turf races at Gulfstream and the fact she drops in class from the grade 3 stakes level to non-graded, she has a shot to run as well as she did one before last when winning.
Dancing N Dixie and Breath Away both have run good races on occasion and may complete exacta tickets, as shown below.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Life’s an Audible and Ozara should be considered for win bets at odds of 9 to 5 or more, and I wouldn’t hesitate wagering on both if their odds are above that threshold.
When presented with the opportunity to wager on more than one horse to win, we can gain the best mathematical edge possible by using a “Dutching” tool to prorate our wagers. There is a free Dutching tool at Amwager where all we have to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.
Exactas: Life’s an Audible and Ozara over Life’s an Audible, Ozara, Dancing N Dixie and Breath Away
Royal Heroine Stakes - Race 7 at Santa Anita - Post Time 7 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Tirupati, Public Assembly, Raw Ability
For inclusion in second on exacta tickets: Hamwood Flier, Lunar Impact
Considering Hamwood Flier is absolutely a “need the lead” type who will have to run very fast to get to the front and save ground from an outside post from the start, and considering Sneaker, who gets an inside post, has been first or second after a half-mile has been run in her last nine turf route races, Tirupati should get a dream trip sitting in third position in the early stages. Just off the pacesetters is where Tirupati likes to be, as when she was second in the early stages of the Buena Vista Stakes on March 1 when the leader ran the opening half mile in :45.2 seconds. Making up seven lengths over a quarter mile, Tirupati made the lead with an eighth of a mile to go and was just beaten a head on the wire, earning a very strong 107 Equibase Speed Figure, which is the highest in the field. Tirupati followed up that effort with a wire-to-wire win in the Wilshire Stakes at the distance of the Royal Heroine last month under jockey Umberto Rispoli, who was riding her for the first time and has the mount again in this race. Since first trying the grass last summer, Tirupati has won three of seven races while finishing worse than third just once, in a grade 1 race. In her current form and with the pace scenario in her favor, she could win her second graded stakes in a row.
Public Assembly started her career with the top barn of Chad Brown, winning in her third career start (and second off a layoff) last September. Following a second-place finish last October, Public Assembly was privately purchased by her new owners and sent to Phil D’Amato. Even after five months off, when she returned to the races on March 30, Public Assembly picked up where she left off last fall, with a visually impressive rally from fourth to draw off late. She earned a career-best 100 speed figure for the effort, one she can easily improve upon second off the layoff and perhaps more importantly on the cut back from one mile and one-quarter to one mile, which should really sharpen up her late kick. Entering the race with a five-furlong workout which was the best of 51 on the day, Public Assembly is sending all the right signals for an “A” effort.
Raw Ability is well named, as she is undefeated in three races. She won in Ireland last June in a 14-horse field and was then imported to the U.S. and joined the John Sadler barn. After three months off, she won at Del Mar in September, rallying impressively from ninth with an eighth of a mile to run and running the last quarter mile in a strong :22.3 seconds. After another six months off, Raw Ability returned on March 17 at Santa Anita and this time she pressed the pace in second in the early stages, through a snail-like :49.4 opening half mile, before running the last quarter mile in :22.4 to win. Her speed figure of 94, 94 and 90, respectively, in her three races to date, are well short of the 100 recent figure Public Assembly earned wining last month, or the 99 and 100 recent figures earned by Tirupati in her last two races, but considering how big of a late kick this filly has shown, that might not matter if the pace is hot and even the stalkers like Tirupati and Public Assembly are susceptible to being run down near the wire.
It is possible Hamwood Flier could stick around for second after setting the early pace so we can play her in that position on some exacta tickets. Also, Lunar Impact ran a race nearly a year ago today (on the Santa Anita turf) good enough to win if repeated, then faded to fifth after running second from the start last July, then took time off. If it weren’t for the fact it is pretty difficult to run well enough to win a turf route off a nine month layoff, and that she hasn’t tried that before, she might be one of the top contenders. Just the same, because she’s two for three at this mile trip on grass and opens at 20 to 1, she should be considered for some exacta tickets.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
Tirupati at odds of 8 to 5 or more, possibly a low odds overlay win bet.
Public Assembly at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Raw Ability at odds of 7 to 2 or more.
If at least two of the three will be higher than minimum odds near post time, using the free “Dutching” tool at Amwager is a great way to bet this race and achieve the best mathematical edge possible.
Exacta:
Box Tirupati, Public Assembly, Raw Ability
ALSO Tirupati, Public Assembly and Raw Ability over Tirupati, Public Assembly, Raw Ability, Hamwood Flier, Lunar Impact