Key Races & Bets for Saturday April 5th, 2025
Carter Stakes - Race 10 at Aqueduct - Post Time 5:06 PM Eastern
Horse to Beat: Quint’s Brew
Quint’s Brew is a standout in my opinion, even in this eight horse field in which six of the eight won their last starts and the other two finished second in them. Quint’s Brew is a lightly raced four year old with four wins and one third place finish in five races and the latter can be ignored as he was interfered with and moved up to second after the winner was disqualified. Both of his races this year have been superb, winning by six lengths in January at a mile around one turn, then hand ridden to win by five and one-half lengths on February 15 at this seven furlong trip. Those efforts are BY FAR the fastest races in the field for seven furlongs and one mile, earning Quint’s Brew graded stakes caliber 114 and 118 Equibase Speed Figures. Only Full Moon Madness can come close with a 115 figure winning the Tom Fool Stakes on March 1, BUT that was at six furlongs. At this seven furlong distance, Full Moon Madness has never won or finished second in four races. On the other hand, Quint’s Brew has two wins in two tries at one mile around one turn and is one for one at seven furlongs (excluding the race where he was interfered with). Making his third start of the year and at this seven furlong trip, Quint’s Brew appears to be the one to beat by far, and because so many of the entrants in this race enter off wins, he could offer low odds overlay value.
Handicapper Picks
Win: In my opinion, if this race were run with this group of horses 100 times, Quint’s Brew would win 70 times out of 100. Therefore his fair odds are 3 to 5 and anything above those odds are an overlay and suggest we should bet him to win.
Doubles & Pick 3:
Race 10: Quint’s Brew
Race 11: Masmak, Curbstone
Race 12: Rodriguez, Grande, Statesman
Race 10: Quint’s Brew
Race 11: Masmak
Race 12: Rodriguez, Grande, Statesman
Race 10: Quint’s Brew
Race 11: Masmak
Race 12: ALL (in case something really wacky happens)
Excelsior Stakes - Race 11 at Aqueduct - Post Time 5:38 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Masmak, Curbstone
There’s an EARLY PACE problem in this eight horse field in that Batten Down, Phileas Fogg and Mama’s Gold ONLY win when leading from start to finish. It doesn’t matter the race is one mile and one-quarter because if any two of the three go for the lead at any cost as it appears they will, the pace will be faster than average and the physical and mental efforts early will take their toll. I’m eliminating ALL THREE as win contenders, though it is conceivable one of them could hang on for second.
Masmak improved markedly since joining the Dutrow barn last summer, and he’s matured significantly over that time. He’s won four of six and finished second in the two others. Although his last two wins came at nine furlongs and he’s never run this far, as he is by Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso out of a Harlan’s Holiday mare I have no doubt he will relish the extra eight of a mile. He enters the race off a career-best 111 Equibase Speed Figure earned over the track with Franco in the saddle as today and he’s likely to get a fantastic trip off the dueling leaders just as he did four weeks ago when laying third for the first mile then taking over and drawing off.
Curbstone has less of a probability to win but with a strong record of six wins and four second place finishes in 17 dirt races, including five wins and two second place finishes at Aqueduct, he must be respected as a contender, particularly as he routinely goes to post at odds of more than 10 to 1. He’s run twice at this distance, finishing first once and second once, and he’s run even further, as when second at two miles on turf last October. Curbstone is a true “Stayer” and if he runs as well today as he did when second last October (with a 106 speed figure), Curbstone could, at the least, make us a nice profit in the exacta .
Handicapper Picks
Win: Masmak at odds of 8 to 5 or more, another low odds overlay.
Curbstone at odds of 3 to 1 or greater.
Due to the likely odds disparity between Masmak and Curbstone, and if both are above fair odds, we should bet both to win. The best way to do this and gain a mathematical edge is to prorate our wagers using a “Dutching” tool, which does the work for us. There is a free Dutching tool at Amwager where all we have to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.
Doubles:
Race 11: Masmak, Curbstone
Race 12: Rodriguez, Grande, Statesman
Race 11: Masmak
Race 12: Rodriguez, Grande, Statesman
Wood Memorial Stakes - Race 12 at Aqueduct - Post Time 6:10 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Grande, Statesman, Rodriguez
I’ll start with the “why not” list, beginning with 7 to 2 morning line second choice Captain Cook. Yes, he won the Withers Stakes at this nine furlong trip over the track, BUT that was nine weeks ago and he hasn’t raced since. At this time of year with three year olds, that’s giving away TOO MUCH recent form as every other horses in the field has run since the last week of February. Also, I understand why Hill Road opens as the third choice in the wagering at 9 to 2, as he’s trained by Chad Brown and as he finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November, then third in the Tampa Bay Derby four weeks ago following four months of. Neither of those efforts suggest to me he can improve enough to win this race.
Grande can improve to win in his third career start, especially since he’s one of only two to have won at this mile and one-eighth distance (the other being Captain Cook two months ago). Grande won his debut at a mile around one turn and easily defeated six other horses at this distance last time out on February 27, stalking in second for the first half-mile then drawing away late and ridden out with gas left in the tank. Todd Pletcher, who has won this race SEVEN times since 2010, knows Grande is the type of horse to get the job done and with logical improvement in this colt’s third career start he can do just that. His starting odds are 5 to 1 and that offers a lot of value as well.
Stateman comes in very much under the radar with 15 to 1 starting odds. He’s won two of five but is two for two this year. He improved markedly in his second start of the year on February 26 at Tampa, rallying fast from fifth with an eighth of a mile to run before draw off late. The 97 Equibase Speed Figure earned is the second best last race figure in the field, behind Sand Devil’s 102 when second in the one-turn Gotham Stakes. Trainer Shug McGaughey brings in Marin to ride from Tampa as he is two for two aboard Statesman. McGaughey won this race in 1989 with Easy Goer and again in 1998 with Coronado’s Quest and I trust the Hall-of-Fame trainer to know when he has a three year old who is getting stronger and smarter with every race and is good enough to compete at this level.
Rodriguez is a Baffert second or third stringer, having lost to Baffert’s Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in February and finishing third behind Journalism in the San Felipe Stakes last month, with Baffert’s Barnes in second. Rodriguez is ducking the latter pair by coming to New York while they both run in the Santa Anita Derby today, and even Baffert isn’t sure how to get the best out of this cold by Derby winner Authentic, as he’s taking blinkers off for a stakes. On the other hand, Rodriguez has the rail and enough early speed to control the tempo from the start, and the 105 and 101 Equibase Speed Figures earned when breaking his maiden on January 4 and when second in the Robert B. Lewis four weeks later, would make him competitive if repeated in this race. He will be overbet though, opening at 5 to 2 and likely bet lower due to the fact Baffert trains. It should be noted Baffert won this race in 2001 and 2006.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Grande to win at 2 to 1 or more.
Statesman to win at 4 to 1 or more.
Again, if we end up betting two of the three, this is an opportunity to use the “Dutching” tool, free at Amwager, to achieve the best mathematical edge we can by prorating our bets for the best return. Just select the total you want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done.
Exactas: Because Statesman starts at double digit odds, there is value in exactas using him for first and second:
Box Statesman and Grande
Box Statesman and Rodriguez
