Key Races & Bets for Saturday August 6th, 2022
Fasig-Tipton Lure Stakes – Race 5 at Saratoga – Post Time 2:50 PM Eastern
Shifting Sands is one of two in this race saddled by Chad Brown and he opens at 5 to 1, which is two and one-half times the starting odds of the other Brown entrant, Public Sector. Shifting Sands is every bit as good, and as probable to win, coming off a sharp third level allowance win at Belmont last month. He had returned from five months off prior to that and needed the race before the win AND he’s on the SAME PATTERN he was when winning the IDENTICAL Better Talk Now Stakes, at Saratoga last summer under Franco, who rode him to those back-to-back wins at Saratoga in July and August of last year which points to the colt winning his second in a row.
Public Sector can win but doesn’t have to, with a record of 5-3-2 in 13 career turf races compared to 4-0-0 in nine for Shifting Sands. He won back-to-back on the Saratoga turf in 2021 BUT is not in the same form as he has only managed sixth, third and third place finishes this year. He does drop in class from grade 3 to non-graded and that makes it so we can’t toss him when considering exacta bets.
Dynadrive is the horse WE WANT to be in the exacta, with either of the other two, as he opens at 20/1. That’s ridiculous for a horse with a 5-3-2 record in 17 turf races and earnings of almost a quarter of a million dollars, who enters the race off a win and who finished first or second in three straight last spring and summer including a win at Saratoga.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Shifting Sands at 2 to 1 or more AND Dynadrive at 5 to 1 or more.
Of course we want to bet more on the lower odds horse here as he has a higher probability to win but we don’t want to miss out on the potential for a $30 to $40 winner so that’s why we “DUTCH” the bet, which means to prorate our total wagers among the two horses based on the odds. Amwager.com has a free and easy to use Dutching Tool available where you can set the amount you want to bet, or the amount you want to win, and the math is done for you. This is just one of many tools, and perks, available to the bettor at Amwager.com
Exactas: Box Public Sector, Shifting Sands and Dynadrive
Public Sector, Shifting Sands and Dynadrive over Public Sector, Safe Conduct, Shifting Sands and Dynadrive
Dynadrive and Shifting Sands over Somelikeithotbrown
Note: Both Safe Conduct and Somelikeithotbrown need the lead to win and should battle and tire late. There’s no point in playing the exacta of Public Sector over Somelikeithotbrown and that’s why that combination is avoided.
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West Virginia Governor’s Stakes – Race 7 at Mountaineer Park – Post Time 4:55 PM Eastern
Derby House is a perfect five-for-five this year and therefore deserving of top billing although he opens at 5 to 1. His last four wins have come in two-turn races in which he’s moved up the ladder, with the last three by an average margin of 6 lengths. The 102, 100 and most recently 107 Equibase figures are tops in the field save the last race 106 earned by Mr. Wireless and Adorno is three-for-three aboard and riding back.
Mr. Wireless ran the best race of his career last month when taking the Schaefer Memorial Stakes in his second start back after nearly nine months off and he won the West Virginia Derby on this date last year following a win so he will be very tough again as well.
Fulsome has a formidable seven for 13 record in his career including the Grade 2 Oaklawn Mile in April with a 107 figure competitive with the top two and these three stick out like sore thumbs against the other four.
Handicapper Picks
Derby House to win at 8 to 5.
I think Mr. Wireless is going to get bet down considerably from his 9 to 2 starting odds but I would be him at 2 to 1 or more.
If BOTH horses exceed their minimum odds I will use the Dutching Tool at Amwager to help maximize my profit and I hope you do as well.
Exactas:
Derby House over ALL
Derby House over Mr. Wireless, Fulsome and Silver Prospector
Box Derby House, Fulsome and Mr. Wireless
Doubles:
Race 7: Derby House
Race 8: Home Brew
Race 7: Derby House, Mr. Wireless, Fulsome
Race 8: Home Brew
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West Virginia Derby – Race 8 at Mountaineer – Post Time 5:35 PM Eastern
Home Brew sticks out here in my opinion and that’s why he’s the single on the double tickets started in the previous race. He won two of his first three starts last year as a two year old then ran badly and took nearly five months off. He has won both of his starts as a three year old, starting with the Oaklawn Stakes then the Pegasus Stakes, the latter by nearly seven lengths with speed to spare and with a dominant 105 Equibase Figure he’s likely to improve on in his third start of the year. He opens as the 3 to 1 second choice to We the People, who won the Peter Pan Stakes in May by 10, but even that effort with a 101 figure pales in comparison to what Home Brew is expected to provide today.
Handicapper Picks
Win Bet: Home Brew at 3 to 2 or more.
Exacta: Home Brew over King Ottoman
Box Home Brew and King Ottoman (who opens at 6 to 1 and who earned a 105 figure one before last winning the Texas Derby). Note: There’s no point in playing Home Brew over the other favorites We the People and Simplification
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California Dreamin’ Stakes – Race 10 at Del Mar – Post Time 9:30 PM Eastern
Carmelita’s Man and Tom’s Surprise have an edge in this very full field of Cal-Breds going two turns on turf. Opening at 10/1, first look has to go to Tom’s Surprise, likely underbet because he’s shipping down from northern California. However, with a 10-4-2 record in 25 races and a quarter million in career earnings this five year old fits here like a “T” particularly as he was claimed by an exceptionally sharp trainer in Mathis for $62,500 last out, so the winner’s share of $90K here is a big return in just over a month. He closed exceptionally fast from 13th to 4th, beaten just under two lengths in a lot of traffic, this past April in the Grade 3 San Francisco Stakes, an “OPEN” stakes, so this move to Cal-Breds only is a drop in class and the jockey who has ridden him to his last FIVE wins, Ayuso, comes down to ride. If you still don’t think he fits, the 100 and 102 figures earned in his turf races in March and April fit with horses here at much lower odds so he’s every bit as good as they are, AND his late kick is going to benefit from a very hot pace provided by Jimmy Blue Jeans and Hockey Dad, both with need-the-lead styles and outside posts that demand they be sent hard to the front to save ground before the first turn.
Carmelita’s Man returns from a two month rest after winning the identical Crystal Water Stakes at Santa Anita as the 7 to 5 favorite, yet he opens at five to one here. Hernandez, who has won nearly one-quarter of his races so far at the meeting, was up for the horse’s last two wins and rides again and with a 5-5-1 record in 17 turf races it’s highly likely Carmelita’s Man will complete the exacta if he does not win.
Handicapper Picks
Win Bets: Tom’s Surprise and Carmelita’s Man to win at odds of 2 to 1. This is absolutely the right race to prorate our bets and maximize our edge using a dutching tool like the one which is totally free, and easy to use, at Amwager.com
Exactas: Tom’s Surprise and Carmelita’s Man over Tom’s Surprise, Carmelita’s Man, The Chosen Vron, Luvluv and Coast of Roan (the latter three all with good chances to be second but also with potentially disadvantageous outside posts).
