Galway Stakes – Race 7 at Saratoga – Post Time 4:30 PM Eastern
Analysis and main contenders:
Redefined and Love Reigns have the bulk of the probability to win, with Isabel Alexandra and Stone Silent (the likely pacesetter) also having some shots. Redifined gets preference as she opens at 6 to 1. She won at six furlongs on the Belmont turf when last seen in June, versus OLDER, and she’s been second or third in all three stakes races she has run in, in one of those missing by a neck. That effort came in the Grade 3 Matron Stakes last fall so she’s proven at the level and she put in a smashing workout last week in preparation for this race, 47.8 for a half-mile which was the fourth best of nearly 100 on the day at the trip. Jose Ortiz gets on which is another good sign.
Love Reigns won the Limestone Stakes when last seen in April at Keeneland, and she won the Bolton Landing Stakes last summer at Saratoga at this trip. She can win on the lead, from off the pace, or from far back. Her best efforts have earned 100 and 103 Equibase Speed Figures, and the best efforts of Redifined have earned 97 and 103 figures so the two fillies are much more evenly matched than their starting odds of 5/2 (Love Reigns) and 6/1 (Redifined) make it appear they might be.
Isabel Alexandra won her career debut in a turf sprint last October then stretched out and ran so-so in three straight. Returned to turf sprints for her most recent start in late June, she rallied strongly to win by a neck with a 103 figure and she shipped to Saratoga for a turf work in preparation for the race so she must be respected.
Stone Silent is the one the rest have to catch as she wired the field with ease when last seen four weeks ago and came up a neck short to Isabel Alexandra three weeks prior to that. Those efforts earned 98 and 102 figures and if Santana can get her an easy lead from the good outside post she draws she might win her second in a row.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Redifined to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
I would consider win bets on Isabel Alexandra and Stone Silent at 4 to 1 or higher.
IF we do end up considering win bets on more than one horse, this is a great race to take advantage of the mathematical edge provided by a “Dutching” tool, which prorates wagers for the best value. There’s a free dutching tool at Amwager.com, where you can set the amount you want to bet in total and the math is done for you to help achieve the best edge. This is just one of many tools, and perks, for bettors at Amwager.com
Doubles:
Race 7: Isabel Alexandra, Redifined, Love Reigns, Stone Silent
Race 8: Rhyme Schemes
Pick 3 (three tickets)
Race 7: Isabel Alexandra, Redifined, Love Reigns, Stone Silent
Race 8: Rhyme Schemes
Race 9: Emmanuel, Annapolis, Casa Creed
Race 7: Redifined
Race 8: Rhyme Schemes
Race 9: Emmanuel, Annapolis, Casa Creed
Race 7: Isabel Alexandra, Redifined, Love Reigns, Stone Silent
Race 8: Rhyme Schemes
Race 9: Emmanuel
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Saratoga Special Stakes – Race 8 at Saratoga – Post Time 5:06 PM Eastern
Rhyme Schemes opens at 4 to 5 and is a legitimate, prohibitive, favorite. He wired the field with easy and was ridden out with gas in the tank to a nine length victory on June 15 when last seen. That race has become a KEY race with FIVE next out winners and he gets a good post to get the lead, clear the field, and do the same thing. Trainer Casse won the 2021 Schuylerville Stakes (on opening day) at Saratoga with a last out maiden winner shipping in from Kentucky just like this colt.
As Rhyme Schemes will be the prohibitive favorite the best and likely only way to make a profit is on pick 3 tickets like those started in the last race, hoping to make more money for the same amount wagered as compared to a win bet, as well as double tickets from this race to the next.
Handicapper Picks
Doubles:
Race 8: Rhyme Schemes
Race 9: Emmanuel, Annapolis, Casa Creed
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Fourstardave Handicap – Race 9 at Saratoga – Post Time 5:44 PM Eastern
Analysis and main contenders:
Emmanuel, opening at 3 to 1, is as good and as probable to win this race as are Annapolis (8/5) and as Casa Creed (7/5), but we should use all three on double and pick 3 tickets played. Emmanuel comes from the Pletcher barn the same as Annapolis, and like his stablemate has six career wins. He’s never won a grade 1 but then again Annapolis has only won one, that win coming in the Turf Mile Stakes last fall at Keeneland. Emmanuel is a four year old who has won the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge as well as a trio of grade 3 stakes, and he’s won three of five this year. His effort in the Poker Stakes when last seen in June, in which he rallied from last of six to win by a neck, was strong enough if repeated here the colt could get his fifth career win in his eighth career turf start and if Pletcher thinks he’s got as much shot at Annapolis, I won’t argue.
Annapolis was beaten by Casa Creed in the Kelso Stakes last month, at this mile trip, and he won the Saranac Stakes on this inner turf course last September as well as broke his maiden on the course. He’s got no knocks except for odds too low for a win bet. Casa Creed won this race last year and should continue in top form as he makes his third start since a three month layoff following his nearly successful trip to Saudi Arabia where he came up a head short in the $15 million Turf Sprint. He won this race following two months off and a win in the Jaipur, which he finished third in this year before winning the Kelso.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Emmanuel to win at 9 to 5 or more. (If we are live on double and pick 3 tickets this may not be necessary)
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Sorrento Stakes – Race 6 at Del Mar – Post Time 7:30 PM Eastern
Analysis and main contenders:
Dreamfyre won a little $75K stakes race in her career debut last month, wiring the field and drawing away easily, and it was the fastest race by any horse in this field. She shipped down from Northern California and put in a sharp three furlong workout last week and is ready to win again.
Feisty Mitole, Dua and Ur in Trouble finished fourth, first and second in a common race over the track three weeks ago. Feisty Mitole ran the best race of the trio as she vied four to five paths wide on the turn, made the lead, only to be barely out finished by Dua in the final strides. She can improve and may be a decent price. Dua will be bet heavily as she’s trained by Baffert and she too should improve. At low odds I’d bet others to win but she should be considered for exacta tickets. Ur in Trouble rallied wide to get second in that race and has improving to do as well. Like Feisty Mitole, she was not bet in that race and may offer value here as well, especially in the exacta if Dua is out of the top two.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Dreamfyre to win at 9 to 5 or more.
Exacta: Dreamfyre over Feisty Mitole, Dua, Ur In Trouble
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Yellow Ribbon Handicap – Race 9 at Del Mar – Post Time 9 PM Eastern
Analysis and main contenders:
I’m only interested in Lucky Girl in this race, as the key to profit. She may only be two for 12 but she won a pair of stakes races on turf last year, then went off form. The KEY is she was off from October of last year until this July, and at some point in between she moved to the top Phil D’Amato barn. The trainer has three horses in here (the other two being Turnerloose and School Dance) but Lucky Girl is the most interesting of the three. Although she had been off for nine month, D’Amato entered her in the Del Mar opening week Osunitas Stakes at a mile. She drew the horribly disadvantageous 14 post, and started out 13th of 14. She was wide on both turns but what happened in the stretch was telling as she as FULL of RUN and in position to post the upset at 14 to 1 when SHUT OFF. She still finished with interest and it must be noted Joe Bravo, the regular rider for Closing Remarks (including five in the money stakes efforts), appears to choose to ride Lucky Girl back today after knowing what might have happened in the Osunitas if not for the traffic trouble she encountered.
Closing Remarks, Spirit and Glory, School Dance and Awake at Midnyte all can run good races but none are standouts.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Lucky Girl to win at 2 to 1 or more.
Exactas: Lucky Girl over Closing Remarks, Spirit and Glory, School Dance and Awake at Midnyte
Optionally you can also play the opposite of the exacta, putting Lucky Girl in second, which may pay better than a place bet depending on her odds.
