Key Races & Bets for Saturday December 21st, 2024
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Janus Stakes - Race 8 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 2:12 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Coppola, Arzak, Reef Runner
Coppola gets a good outside post to stalk the two or three very likely pacesetters, Yes I Am Free, That’s Right and Smithwick’s Spice, all need-the-lead types who should go too fast early to have any stamina left to hold off the closers. He has won eight of 26 races with only one second so if he doesn’t win he may not even finish in the money. He has two big efforts at this trip which are representative of what he can accomplish today, most importantly the Silks Run Stakes at Gulfstream at this distance in March, and he gets red hot Gaffalione to ride as well.
Arzak drops from the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint where he was beaten just a length and one half although sixth. He won the Grade 2 Shakertown Stakes at Keeneland in April with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle, who gets back on after two races with other jockeys, and those two changes could help him to rebound to winning form.
Reef Runner missed by a nose with a big finish in a classified allowance race last month at the distance on the Gulfstream Park turf and won a stakes race at this distance on the all-weather track which was scheduled to be run on turf. He’s in top form and has a big late kick as well as been very consistent this year with six first or second place finishes in eight races, and four of four with Vasquez in the saddle as today.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Coppola can be considered first among the three win contenders, at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Arzak can be considered at 3 to 1 or more, and Reef Runner at 4 to 1 or higher odds.
When betting on more than one horse to win, there’s a way to get a mathematical edge using a “Dutching” calculator, which prorates your total amount wagered for the best advantage. Amwager has an easy to use Dutching tool which does the calculations for you, which is one of many perks and benefits of Amwager.com
Exacta: Box Coppola, Arzak, Reef Runner
Double, Pick 3 and Pick 4:
Race 8: Coppola, Arzak, Reef Runner
Race 9: Tuscan Sky, Steal Sunshine
Race 10: Win for the Money, Grand Sonata, Major Dude
Race 11: Ribaltagaia, Ocean Club, Bless My Stars
Harlan’s Holiday Stakes - Race 9 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:24 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Tuscan Sky
Second Win Contender: Steal Sunshine
For exacta tickets: Tumbarumba
Tuscan Sky gets the rail and is very likely to be sent for the lead from the start as that was the strategy used last June when winning the Pegasus Stakes at this distance, which was the best race of his career as he won by nearly seven lengths. He found nine furlongs too far and the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes too tough the following month, then after four and one half months off, Tuscan Sky returned and nearly won the Discovery Stakes at Aqueduct last month. Likely to improve second off the layoff and cutting back to the distance of his Pegasus win, Tuscan Sky definitely has an early pace edge and he may be able to dominate in similar fashion as he did last June.
Steal Sunshine is the likely winner if Tuscan Sky can’t go all the way in front. He won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile in March with a nice rally from fourth after a half mile, and after five months off he won easily over the track again with a rally from last of seven. He’s earned six of seven wins over this dirt course and can put “A” races back to back so will be coming on strongly and may give Tuscan Sky all he can handle in the final stages.
Tumbarumba is about as game as they come, this year with a 1-4-0 record in six races. He must be used on exacta tickets in the second position as he drops from the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (where he finished fourth) and he’s finished first or second in all three races he’s run here at Gulfstream Park.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Tuscan Sky may be a low odds overlay and I’d bet him to win at odds of 8 to 5 or more.
I’d consider Steal Sunshine for a second win bet at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Exacta:
Box Tuscan Sky, Steal Sunshine
Tuscan Sky, Steal Sunshine over Tuscan Sky, Steal Sunshine, Tumbarumba
Double and Pick 3:
Race 9: Tuscan Sky, Steal Sunshine
Race 10: Win for the Money, Grand Sonata, Major Dude
Race 11: Ribaltagaia, Ocean Club, Bless My Stars
Ft. Lauderdale Stakes - Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:54 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Win for the Money, Grand Sonata, Major Dude
Win for the Money crossed the finish line in first both times he raced on the turf course at Gulfstream Park but was disqualified and placed second in the first of those two efforts, in April of 2023. That effort earned a graded stakes quality 112 Equibase Speed Figure which he came close to repeating when winning the Woodbine Mile in September, one race before last. Although the Woodbine Mile and the Breeders’ Cup Mile which he ran in last month both carried a grade one ranking, the latter was much tougher, and so it was no surprise Win for the Money ended up last of 10 in that race. Win for the Money’s only other race on the Gulfstream Park turf course was the Mr. Steele Stakes this past May, in which he dominated by nearly seven lengths with a 108 figure effort. Considering the strength of his effort one before last as well as this past May, Win for the Money figures to rebound to top form good enough to win in this situation.
Grand Sonata has only won once in six races this year while finishing second in two others. He too was overmatched in a grade one race last month, the Breeders’ Cup Turf, finishing 11th of 13. However, right before that Grand Sonata won the Kentucky Turf Cup with a very strong 114 figure at odds of 15 to 1. That effort was no fluke, as Grand Sonata had earned a similar 114 figure two races prior to that when second, beaten a nose, in the United Nations Stakes. Similar to Win for the Money, Grand Sonata has proven a liking to the Gulfstream Park turf course, having won two of three races. Perhaps more importantly, in last year’s Fort Lauderdale, Grand Sonata rallied furiously in the late stages to end up in a four horse blanket finish, missing the win by three-quarters of a length and earning a 106 figure he has bettered in three of six races since then. It is very interesting to note that even though Grand Sonata has a record of 5-6-2 in 24 career races, jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who rides in this race, has been aboard for all five wins although he’s only ridden the horse in 12 of those 24 races. Considering his chance to return to the top form shown one race before last when winning the Kentucky Turf Cup, Grand Sonata is another with a high probability to win this year’s Fort Lauderdale Stakes.
Major Dude has won five of 13 career races on turf, including the Penn Mile Stakes in the spring of 2023 as a three year old. He went winless in three other races last year but returned stronger as a four year old following nine months off. In his second start of 2024, Major Dude won a classified allowance race at Saratoga and at the distance of the Fort Lauderdale with a 106 figure then two races later earned a career-best 113 figure with a strong victory in a stakes quality allowance race at Keeneland. Having recently put in a fine half-mile workout which was the best of 24 on the day at the distance, and reunited with Irad Ortiz, Jr., who has been aboard for three of the horse’s six career wins, Major Dude rounds out a strong trio of win contenders who appears to have a significant edge over the rest of the field.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Win for the Money at 2 to 1 or more.
Grand Sonata and/or Major Dude can be considered for a second win bet (whichever is the highest of the two) at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
If more than one of the contenders are above fair odds, we can bet more than one of them to win. The best way to do that is to use a “Dutching” tool, which prorates our wagers to maximize our edge. Amwager has a free dutching tool where all you need to do is enter the total amount you want to invest on win bets and the bets are then prorated based on the odds.
Exacta: Box Win for the Money, Grand Sonata, Major Dude
Double:
Race 10: Win for the Money, Grand Sonata, Major Dude
Race 11: Ribaltagaia, Ocean Club, Bless My Stars
Suwannee River Stakes - Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:24 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Ribaltagaia, Ocean Club, Bless My Stars
For exacta tickets (in second): Hollywood Walk, Be My Sunshine, Breath Away
Ribaltagaia was bred in Kentucky, sold for $40,000 at auction as a yearling in 2022, and raced entirely in France, until now. She won two of nine races. The first was a maiden win first time out, on turf, in September, 2023 and the other win was this past May in a non-graded stakes race at this mile trip on turf. After that win, four of her five races were in very tough company including a Group 2 race in June where she was highly regarded at 3 to 1. She also ran in two group 1 races, one in which the winner was a horse that ran in one of the top races in all of Europe and another one of the top races in Europe (The Prix de La Foret on Arc d’Triomphe day). Her last race was on October 8 so she’s not coming back from a layoff and she gets top jockey Junior Alvarado to ride. It took some doing but I looked up her French trainer, Gianluca Bietolini, and discovered he is one of the top trainers in France with $11 million dollars in earnings in the past nine years and 267 wins in 2700 races. Considering this filly stands out in class, if the drop in class helps her rebound to the form shown earlier this year, she can post the upset as I imagine she will be ignored by many bettors since her recent form appears poor on paper.
Ocean Club returns off a three month layoff and won the identical Noble Damsel Stakes when last seen. She also won the similar Monroe Stakes on the Gulfstream Park turf course in May, with jockey Gonzalez up, who rides here and who has been aboard for four of her five career wins. She gets the rail, which suits her style as she has run the best when in the top three early, and in the Noble Damsel she got the rail and led from start to finish, which is not out of the question here.
Bless My Stars was purchased by the powerful Team Valor outfit from South African connections early this year but had a setback which has kept her from the races for 10 months. She ran in one of the most prestigious races in that country one year ago, the Group 1 Summer Cup with a big purse of $266K U.S. and she finished a nose from second in that race. Having won five of 16 races, the layoff is of no concern considering Pletcher’s record with these type of comebacks, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. signing on gives more confidence she’s fit and ready to run an “A” race good enough to win.
For some exacta tickets, Hollywood Walk, Be My Sunshine and Breath Away may be considered horses to use. Hollywood Walk has a 1-2-3 record in seven races this year and although a cut below the top three win contenders has a shot to be in the money once more. Be My Sunshine is winless in five races this year but finished second in the Grade 3 Endeavour Stakes in February and has been first or second in four of five career starts on the Gulfstream Park turf. Breath Away has a 3-5-2 overall record in 12 starts including three for three first or second on the GP turf. She was a head and a nose from Ocean Club in the Noble Damsel and although may have less kick than that one again she also could be part of the exacta.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Ribaltagaia, Ocean Club and Bless My Stars can be considered for win bets at odds of 7 to 2 or more. In this situation I would expect at least two of them to be much higher, and so I’d bet the two (among the three contenders) which are the highest odds.
Exacta: Ribaltagaia, Ocean Club and Bless My Stars over Ribaltagaia, Ocean Club and Bless My Stars, Hollywood Walk, Be My Sunshine and Breath Away.
