Key Races & Bets for Saturday February 1st, 2025
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Kitten’s Joy Stakes - Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:43 PM Eastern
Top win and exacta contenders: Test Score, Charlie’s To Blame, Mi Bago
Test Score was so highly regarded after a second-place finish in a turf sprint in his debut last July at Saratoga he was put in the much tougher With Anticipation Stakes the following month, where he finished fifth. Returning to the maiden ranks, he won by a neck with a big finish and in spite of traffic trouble, then was put back in a stakes race, the TBA Aftercare Alliance, on November 1.
Not only did he run huge when rallying from seventh to miss by a neck at the finish, that race has turned out to be one of the best “KEY RACES” I can ever recall, a “KEY RACE” meaning one which turned out to be productive. In this case, the winner came back to win a stakes recently while the horse behind Test Score (in third) has not run. Of the eight other finishers in the top 11, FOUR won their next starts, ALL in STAKES, including Mi Bago (Pulpit Stakes here at Gulfstream on 12/29). Horses which finished eighth, ninth and 11th ALL won stakes races and the fourth, sixth and seventh finishers ran second in stakes. Considering how well Test Score ran and how much he’s expected to improve, he is the one to beat.
Charlie’s to Blame ran as well earning his first win in his first start in a two-turn race on turf as Test Score did in his maiden win before nearly winning the TAA Aftercare Alliance Stakes. He led from start to finish in that race and dominated in an 11 horse field while being “ridden out” in the final stages. The pace was not soft in that race and if not for the fact Test Score has the experience of a stakes race and a very productive one at that, Charlie’s to Blame would be the top pick.
Mi Bago won the Pulpit over this course after finishing fifth in the TAA Aftercare Alliance Stakes, also leading from start to finish, and easily drawing off by five lengths late after setting a fast pace. He’s not a need-the-lead type, though, as he rallied to win a turf sprint stakes two races before that, in October. He then won the Dania Beach Stakes on New Year’s Day, scheduled from turf but run on the all-weather track, also leading from start to finish. However, he gets the outside post in a field of eight and won his previous two races from the two and three posts, so may have a harder time saving ground and having the same late kick. Hence, he’s the third most probable to win this race but make no mistake he can win.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Test Score at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.
Charlie’s to Blame at odds of 5 to 2 or higher
Mi Bago at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Exacta: Box Test Score & Charlie’s To Blame, box Test Score & Mi Bago
Holy Bull Stakes - Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:13 PM Eastern
Top win and exacta contenders: Burning Glory, Tappan Street, Ferocious
I’ll start with Burning Glory, owing to a very strong pedigree as well as Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott’s unique ability to determine when a young horse in his care can successfully make the leap in class from maiden races to stakes races during their three-year-old campaign. Many racing fans are already aware of Mott’s prowess with these types of horses, but if not, some prime examples are Hofburg (second in the 2018 Florida Derby), Modernist (winner of the 2020 Risen Star Stakes) and Candyman Rocket (winner of the 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes), all following maiden victories. Overall, per a Race Lens query, Mott has a very strong record of eight wins in 37 races the past five years with three-year-olds in dirt route stakes following a maiden win. On the pedigree side, Burning Glory is out of the mare Hail (by Tapit), who is a half-sister to Close Hatches ($2.7 million) and Lockdown ($495,000), both which had solid three-year-old campaigns. As to Burning Glory himself, he improved to a career-best 93 Equibase Speed Figure winning in his third career start when last seen in December, and Tyler Gaffalione, who was aboard for the first time in that race, returns to ride back. Considering Burning Glory improved by 10 points from his previous start and considering that 93 figure is the second best last race figure in the field behind the 95 earned by Ferocious when fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, this colt could take a big step forward and into the early list of top contenders on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Tappan Street won at first asking on December 28, at Gulfstream but at seven furlongs. Just the same, there is little doubt he can run as well or better off the experience of a race and at this longer distance as he is a son of Into Mischief out of a Distorted Humor mare. That mare, Virginia Key, is a half-sister to Pyrenees ($786,000) and Grace Adler ($259,000) and her only other foal to race is a multiple winner around two turns (on turf). The race Tappan Street won has turned out to be a “Key Race” from which only three horses have run back, two winning their next starts. In that debut, which earned an excellent 91 figure, Tappan Street showed a lot of maturity when relaxing in third position for the first half-mile before rallying by the front runner to win going away. As such, this colt could be well on his way to making his mark on the Derby trail.
Ferocious won his debut in easy fashion by nearly eight lengths last summer so it was no surprise when he was sent to post as the heavy favorite in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga last September. Although second to Chancer McPatrick, Ferocious wasn’t really disgraced as he was finishing fast and missed by a half-length at the end, earning a 91 figure. He followed that up with the same figure when second in the Breeders’ Futurity last October, repeating that 91 figure effort. Fairly well regarded by bettors in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November, Ferocious had traffic trouble twice during the race but showed some excellent late interest, moving up from 10th to fifth in the last eighth of a mile and earning a career best 95 figure. Now likely more mature as a three-year-old, Ferocious has a shot to run even better in this situation. However, his trainer has stated this week the colt may be 75% to 80% fit for his return so I’d be cautious betting him to win at low odds.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider win bets on two of the three contenders – Burning Glory, Tappan Street, Ferocious, at 3 to 1 odds or higher.
Exacta: Box Burning Glory, Tappan Street, Ferocious
Forward Gal Stakes - Race 12 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:45 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Stunner, Rojo Rita
Contenders for third on trifecta tickets: The Queens MG, Justinqueso, Eclatant
Stunner is the “speed of the speed” and from an outside post should have no trouble getting in front in the opening quarter mile. She romped wire to wire last September in her second start then easily beat eight horses in the similar Tempted Stakes at Aqueduct in November, at one mile around one turn. Stretching out to two turns for the My Dear Girl Stakes on November 30, Stunner once again established an easy lead, but was run down at the wire to lose by a neck, with SEVEN lengths back to the next horse. Returning to one turn, she should not get beaten in the last yards as she was last out and looks very tough.
That being said, if Rojo Rita is also sent to the front, it could compromise Stunner’s chances, although Stunner is much faster in the opening quarter mile. In that case Rojo Rita could take up a stalking trip and if close enough to Stunner could go by late. She’s only run once but it was a spectacular effort, where she won by 16 lengths in a field of seven. Rested and pointing to this race since then, and with improvement likely off the experience of a race, this filly certainly can’t be counted out as a contender.
There may be some value in the trifecta with some horses who offer decent odds. The Queens M G posted the 44 to 1 upset last summer in the Schuylerville Stakes at Saratoga and proved that to be no fluke when winning the Adirondack Stakes the following month. She ended the year on a sour note with fifth and third place finishes, the latter when well behind Stunner in the Tempted. She has a stalking style and could get a piece, Similarly, Justinqueso finished second in her debut and was moved up to first when the winner was disqualified. She ran well and can’t be ruled out for a part of the purse. Eclatant won her first two races, last June and October, rather easily, both around one turn. Similar to Stunner, she didn’t run as well around two turns when finishing third in the Golden Rod Stakes at the end of November. She’s been training for this race since then and is trained by Brad Cox, the same as Stunner, and as she’s likely more mature as a three-year-old she too could have a say in the outcome.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Stunner at odds of 3 to 2.
Only if 3 to 1 or more, Rojo Rita may be considered for a win bet.
Trifectas:
Stunner over Rojo Rita over The Queens M G, Justinqueso and Eclatant
Stunner and Rojo Rita over Stunner and Rojo Rita over The Queens M G, Justinqueso and Eclatant
