Key Races & Bets for Saturday March 8th, 2025
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Hillsborough Stakes - Race 9 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 4:31 PM Eastern
Top Win contender: Gimme a Nother
Other win contenders: Sparkle Blue, Spaliday, Venencia
Gimme a Nother makes her first start in North America and is undefeated in seven races to date, all on turf and all in South Africa, including four group 1 or 2 stakes. She’s won at distances from seven furlongs to a mile and one-eighth and in her home country she was trained by one of the top trainers in the world in Michael de Kock. She has had a number of excellent workouts on grass at Palm Meadows since January and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. to ride. She will likely be the odds-on favorite and deservedly so because her last two races in South Africa last March and April resulted in back-to-back 109 Equibase Speed Figures which are far superior to how fast any of the other nine in this race have one. The only question is whether she’s ready to run as well as she did 11 months ago.
Because Gimme a Nother will likely be the prohibitive favorite and in spite of her probability to win there are three others worth considering for win bets. Sparkle Blue won the 2024 Hillsborough at odds of 6 to 1. She’s won one of five since but at this nine furlong distance she has a win and a runner-up finish in two starts. Ruiz was up for last year’s win and rides back and the layoff from October is no concern as she won off an eight month layoff earlier in her career. Spaliday and Venencia are two of three trained by Chad Brown, the other being Saffron Moon. Spaliday won the similar Grade 2 Sands Point Stakes when last seen in October and has been working very well for her comeback as a four year old. Venencia finished third in the Endeavour Stakes on this course last month and will be tighter second off the layoff. She won the Forever Together Stakes last fall before the three month break she was returning from last month. All three horses have earned 102 to 104 figures in their best efforts so if Gimme a Nother is not up to the task any of them can win.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Gimme a Nother can be considered for a win bet at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
As she may not make that threshold the profit potential for her winning comes in double and pick 3 tickets (below).
There’s no issue wagering to win on one or two of the other three – Sparkle Blue, Spaliday or Venencia, at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Doubles and Pick 3 (Two tickets, one using only Gimme a Nother):
Race 9: Gimme a Nother
Race 10: Miavana, Pretty Lavish, Nitrogen
Race 11: Patch Adams, Hill Road, Owen Almighy
Race 9: Gimme a Nother
Race 10: Miavana, Pretty Lavish, Nitrogen
Race 11: Patch Adams, Hill Road, Owen Almighy
Florida Oaks - Race 10 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 5:03 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Miavana, Pretty Lavish, Nitrogen
Miavana was sent two turns for the first time last month, leading from start to finish in a field of 12 and was never threatened. She ran the race like a closer even though on the lead, finishing fast (23.2) in the last quarter mile. She ships in from Gulfstream for Mike Maker and gets Joel Rosario, who in spite of being known for bringing home closers has a tremendous knack for getting front runners to relax on the lead and kick on nicely in the stretch. However, I don’t think Miavana is necessarily a need the lead type and from the outside Rosario has lots of options. The 92 Equibase Speed Figure earned in that race, just a maiden race, is JUST ONE POINT lower than the best figure in the field, earned by Nitrogen when winning the Ginger Brew Stakes in January at Gulfstream over the same course Miavana won over. Considering I expect Miavana to run even better off the experience of a route, she could be tough and she is very likely to be ignored in the wagering relative to others. Last but certainly not least, this is one WELL-BRED filly as her dam produced Trikari, winner of five of 10 races, three on turf, and $1.3 million including last year’s American Turf Stakes on Derby day, the Belmont Derby and the Secretariat Stakes.
Pretty Lavish is a perfect two-for-two in her career and is trained by Graham Motion, who can win two races in a row if Gimme a Nother wins the Hillsborough. This filly won in Ireland in October then in her U.S. debut last month was very impressive when rallying from ninth on the far turn to win by a neck, running the last quarter in under 23 seconds under Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rides back. It was obviously a prep for this race and the 89 figure is bound to be improved on in her second start after three months off and second over the course.
Nitrogen will likely go favored as not only did she win the Ginger Brew Stakes in her most recent start, on January 4, she was third in both the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf summer and fall. She earned a 93 figure winning the Ginger Brew, and like Pretty Lavish she was visually impressive in doing so as she was sixth of 10 with an eighth of a mile to go and put in a very strong late run, running the last quarter in 22 seconds and change.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider win bets on all three fillies – Miavana, Pretty Lavish and Nitrogen, at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
With it possible TWO horses may be above minimum odds, this race presents a great opportunity for “Dutching” the win bets, meaning to prorate the wagers for the best mathematical edge. Amwager has a great “Dutching” tool, where all you have to do is enter the total amount you want to win, select two (or more horses) and all the math is done for you. This is one of many great tools and perks for bettors at Amwager.
Exacta: Box Miavana, Pretty Lavish, Nitrogen
Doubles:
Race 10: Miavana, Pretty Lavish, Nitrogen
Race 11: Patch Adams, Hill Road, Owen Almighy
Tampa Bay Derby - Race 11 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 5:34 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Patch Adams, Hill Road, Owen Almighy
You’ll note that likely favorite Chancer McPatrick is not among the win contenders in this race. I’ll mention Chancer McPatrick because if I don’t many will wonder why. He won the first two starts of his career, both sprints, with visually impressive rallies from last of 10 and from eighth of nine. Stretched out to a mile, Chancer McPatrick won the Champagne Stakes last October with a 94 Equibase Speed figure. However, the Champagne was a one-turn race. When racing around two turns for the first time the following month in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Chancer McPatrick couldn’t mount the same kind of rally, moving up from ninth to sixth. Compare that to Hill Road, who out finished Chancer McPatrick with his rally from 10th to third. Considering he has been off for more than three months and the next race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is more important than this one, I believe Chancer McPatrick has less of a probability to win than the three contenders listed below.
Patch Adams showed a lot of talent last November in the second start of his career, dominating in a field of 12 with a 10 length win and a very high 113 Equibase Speed Figure for a two year old. Sent to post as the four to five betting favorite in the Southwest Stakes nearly two months later on January 25, Patch Adams bobbled at the start to be away seventh of nine, compared to third one race prior to that. Moving up to fourth after three-quarters of a mile and to second with an eighth of a mile to run, the colt could not sustain his rally and ended up fourth. Still, it must be noted Patch Adams made up ground on the winner for the last three-quarters of a mile, from seven and one-half lengths back, to three and one-half in the stretch, to two and one-half at the finish. His Equibase pace figures bely that rally, as he earned a 92 second call figure and a 97 final figure. Reunited with jockey Florent Geroux, up for the 10-length win in November but not for the Southwest, Patch Adams is by one of the best sires of three-year-old stakes winners in this field, Into Mischief, and trained by Brad Cox, who has won 27% in graded stakes dirt routes over the past 24 months, well above the average.
Hill Road is trained by Chad Brown, the same as Chancer McPatrick, but there is no doubt in my mind he will be higher odds of the Brown trained pair when the field breaks from the gate. A Kentucky-bred son of Quality Road out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare who is bred to run this distance and more with aplomb, Hill Road ran the first two races of his career on turf and in Ireland, winning the first of them at a mile then finishing seventh in the Group 1 National Stakes. Tried on dirt for the first time after coming to the U.S., Hill Road surprised many handicappers when rallying from 10th to third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November, earning a 98 figure one point higher than the 97 figure Patch Adams earned in the Southwest Stakes. Likely to improve as a more mature three-year-old and off the experience of a race on dirt, Hill Road gets the services of jockey Tyler Gaffalione. It must be noted Brown teamed up with Gaffalione to win the 2024 Tampa Bay Derby with Domestic Product, and on last year’s “Road to the Derby” trail Brown and Gaffalione teamed up for wins by Sierra Leone in the Risen Star Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes before losing in the Kentucky Derby by a nose.
Owen Almighty has done nothing wrong in five races, finishing first in three and second in the other two. Unfortunately, he was disqualified from first to fifth in one of those. The first four were all one-turn races, and Owen Almighty ran as well in his two-turn debut last month in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs as he had in his sprints. In that race, Owen Almighty battled head and head for most of the race before yielding to eventual winner John Hancock by a half-length at the finish. The 96 figure he earned is on par with the figures of the top two contenders and from the rail it is possible jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. may be able to put the colt on the lead and play “come catch me,” perhaps successfully.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Patch Adams at odds of 5 to 2 or higher. Hill Road and Owen Almighty at odds of 7 to 2 or more.
This is another excellent opportunity to use the Dutching tool at Amwager for the best mathematical edge we can have when wagering on more than one horse to win.
