Key Races & Bets for Saturday January 14th, 2023
Pasco Stakes – Race 6 at Tampa Bay Downs- Post Time 3:03 PM Eastern
Top contenders:
Loco Abarrio has won two in a row following a runner-up effort in his debut last October, the most recent of those wins a dominant six and one-half length victory in a field of nine. He gets the two post in this field and the horse inside has no early speed so I expect Loco Abarrio to get to the rail and the lead and potentially coast home to his third win in a row.
Handsome Playboy is the only real threat to potential wire-to-wire winner Loco Abarrio, having also won his most recent race by a good margin, in this case four and one-quarter lengths. He had stalked the two early pacesetters until the top of the stretch and powered off late. Red hot Morales was up then and rides back. One before last Handsome Playboy finished second in the Inaugural Stakes, from which the winner returned to win another stakes, so he has proven he fits with these.
Although I won’t consider Champions Dream and Armstrong for win bets we should use them on pick three tickets, particularly since there’s a single (only one horse) in race seven. Champions Dream has won two of three and Armstrong is undefeated in three starts, but both have question marks as compared to Loco Abarrio and Handsome Playboy. Both are trained by Mark Case, with Champions Dream coming back from two months off. Even though he won the Nashua Stakes when last seen, the Equibase Speed Figure of 81 isn’t any better than the 79 Loco Abarrio earned last out or the 80 Handsome Playboy earned in his most recent race. Armstrong has only run on all-weather and although he did win a stakes it was restricted to Ontario Breds only so these may be a lot tougher.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Loco Abarrio has minimum odds for a win bet of 8 to 5. Handsome Playboy has minimum odds for a win bet of 9 to 5.
Personally I will bet the one to win which has the highest odds near post time, unless one or both have odds of 7 to 2 or higher, in which case I will bet both. In that case using a $2 win bet as an example, for $4 the return is $9 and that’s a 100% profit on a race in which these two have a significant amount of probability to win.
Doubles:
Race 6: Loco Abarrio, Handsome Playboy
Race 7: Tap Dance Fever
Pick 3 (two tickets):
Race 6: Loco Abarrio, Handsome Playboy
Race 7: Tap Dance Fever
Race 8: Aspray, Breton Girl, Financial Advice
Race 6: Loco Abarrio, Handsome Playboy, Champions Dream, Armstrong
Race 7: Tap Dance Fever
Race 8: Aspray, Breton Girl, Financial Advice
Get up to $150 signup bonus and cashback rewards when you bet with AmWager.
Wayward Lass Stakes – Race 7 at Tampa Bay Downs – Post Time 3:33 PM Eastern
Tap Dance Fever is a standout in this seven horse field. She has the second highest total of career wins with four and she enters the race in the best form of her life as she returned from three months off last month to run a huge race. Starting seventh of eight, Tap Dance Fever saved ground from a similar post to the one she gets today, then moved up to fifth, then third, then to lead with an eighth of a mile to go before clearing the field late. Ferrer was up for the first time and rides back and there is every reason to believe Tap Dance Fever will run even better in her second start off the layoff, and second in a row at Tampa around two turns.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Tap Dance Fever at 9 to 5 or more
Double
Race 7: Tap Dance Fever
Race 8: Aspray, Breton Girl, Financial Advice
Pick 3:
Race 7: Tap Dance Fever
Race 8: Aspray, Breton Girl, Financial Advice
Race 9: Personal Pursuit, Dreaming of Snow, Dorth Vader
Get up to $150 signup bonus and cashback rewards when you bet with AmWager.
Race 8 at Tampa Bay Downs – Post Time 4:03 PM Eastern
Top Contenders:
Breton Girl ships over from Shug McGaughey’s Gulfstream barn and makes the second start of her career adding Lasix and stretching out to a mile. She finished well from 10th to be beaten under five length in her debut at a distance she’s not bred to do that well at, and her dam’s two other foals both won nearly $300K while winning multiple turf routes. When McGaughey ships to Tampa over the last year or so and goes to Pablo Morales, he’s won four of 10 and this filly could add to that total.
Chad Brown has a pair of first time starters in Aspray and Financial Advice, and although they lack the experience of Breton Girl, Brown has a very strong record of maiden first time starters in turf routes at Tampa of eight wins and eight seconds in 21 races over the past two years. Those are reasons enough to use both fillies on pick 3 and double tickets played.
Handicapper Picks
Bets
Win: Breton Girl at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Double: (which we can pass if we’re alive in the pick 3)
Race 8: Aspray, Breton Girl, Financial Advice
Race 9: Personal Pursuit, Dreaming of Snow, Dorth Vader
Get up to $150 signup bonus and cashback rewards when you bet with AmWager.
Gasparilla Stakes – Race 9 at Tampa Bay Downs – Post Time 4:33 PM Eastern
Top Contenders:
Dorth Vader gets slight preference among three evenly matched win contenders in this stakes for three year old fillies running seven furlongs. She won the similar Juvenile Fillies Sprint at the distance at Gulfstream Park in October and then shipped over to Tampa to win the Sandpiper Stakes at six furlongs last month. She returned to the trainer’s base at Gulfstream and based on her fine five furlong workout eight days ago appears ready to win her third stakes in a row, that is if neither Personal Pursuit nor Dreaming of Snow improves as they may be capable of.
Personal Pursuit gets first time Lasix and makes her second start after returning from two months off. She finished fourth of 11 in the very tough Wait a While Stakes on grass last time out and in her last dirt start, two before that, won nicely. Gallardo gets on and the filly is by Tapit and related to three multiple winners including two stakes winners so she could be a rising star.
Dreaming of Snow was a well-beaten fourth in the Sandpiper at two to one odds but redeemed herself impressively with an eight length win in an allowance race last month, a career-best effort by far. Camacho rides back and she could be the one in front from the start so could get very brave and win wire-to-wire once more.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Dorth Vader is the one we should look to first for win bets, at 9 to 5 or higher.
Personal Pursuit and Dreaming of Snow can be considered for win bets at 5 to 2 or higher odds.
The BEST way to maximize profit when wagering to win on multiple horses is to use a “Dutching” tool, which allocates wagers based on the odds. Amwager.com has a great and easy to use dutching tool which allows you to set the amount of money you want to bet, or the amount you want to win, then does the math for you. It’s just one of many great tools, and perks, available at Amwager.com
Exactas: Personal Pursuit, Dreaming of Snow and Dorth Vader over Personal Pursuit, Dreaming of Snow, Dorth Vader and Awesome Pic (who finished second to Dorth Vader last month in the Sandpiper).
