Key Races & Bets for Saturday January 4th, 2025
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Mucho Macho Man Stakes - Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:52 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Cool Intentions, Naughty Rascal
Other win contender: McKellen
This race is for three year olds and run at one mile around one turn. Although not officially a “Road to the Florida Derby” race it could have implications, similar to the Jerome Stakes in New York today, so even if we don’t bet we should watch it and possibly remember who ran well and might move forward in the three year old ranks as the distances increase. Cool Intentions finished second in his debut in October and has won both starts since including a race at this distance in November. He continues to improve and ran the fastest of any in this field in his most recent start by virtue of a 97 Equibase Speed Figure. He’s by Authentic out of a Street Cry mare and is bred to be a strong contender on the Derby trail, and his dam produced Telekinesis, who nearly won the Lexington Stakes in 2018 and won the Plate Trial in Canada that year as well. Beat him to win.
Naughty Rascal has won three of five and hit the board in his other two starts. He is the only stakes winner in the field and is two for three on the Gulfstream Park dirt. His last effort was the second fastest in the field with a 95 figure and he gets a good post for his tactical speed running style, allowing him (as well as Cool Intentions) to relax as three need-the-lead types (Guns Loaded, Macho Music and Rolando) go at it from the start on faster than average fractions, before rallying to get into the mix and battle down to the wire.
McKellen is a bit less probable to win than the two horses above BUT three year olds can improve markedly from race to race so he can’t be ruled out as a contender. He won his debut in October at this mile trip at Gulfstream Park then finished second, improving a 90 figure. Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets on for the first time and wins 30% of the time (over the past two years) for trainer D’Angelo. McKellen is another horse who is bred to run well at this and longer distances, as he’s a half-brother to Tiny Temper (a filly), who won the Azeri Stakes last year.
Handicapper Picks
Win: First, we should consider betting Cool Intentions to win at 9 to 5 odds or higher. Then we can consider a second win bet, on Naughty Rascal at 2 to 1 or more. Fair odds on McKellen are 7 to 2 so I might consider a win bet above that threshold.
If more than one of the contenders are above fair odds, we can bet more than one of them to win. The best way to do that is to use a “Dutching” tool, which prorates our wagers to maximize our edge. Amwager has a free dutching tool where all you need to do is enter the total amount you want to invest on win bets and the bets are then prorated based on the odds.
Exactas: I’m not playing nor recommending exactas because any of the three need-the-lead types can run second as well as the three win contenders, so there might be too many exacta combinations to play for the potential return.
Double: (two tickets):
Race 10: Cool Intentions, Naughty Rascal, McKellen
Race 11: Correto, Civetta, Nitrogen, Good Long Cry
Race 10: Cool Intentions
Race 11: Civetta, Good Long Cry
Ginger Brew Stakes - Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:22 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Correto, Civetta, Nitrogen, Good Long Cry
Civetta could be (should be?) three for four in her career, with two wins and a neck defeat (when second) in four races, all on turf. Her last three since her maiden win were in stakes like this one, the most recent a two-turn turf race like this one, the Wait A While Stakes. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode her for the first time in that win and rides back, and her last two Equibase Speed Figures of 88 and 89 are very consistent although not the fastest in the field, so she may not go to post as the favorite as she did in the Wait A While.
Good Long Cry is also likely to go to post at higher odds than either Nitrogen and Correto, for reasons mentioned below. Although she has just one win in six races, the win, last time out, by six lengths, was a very strong effort which shows she now understands what is expected of her. Before that she came up a half-length short of winning in two straight, with her race on October 6 having earned a 99 Equibase Speed Figure which is the third highest in the field. She’s got a good tactical running style so we can expect her to be third or fourth early and running on nicely late.
Nitrogen and Correto just ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and although they went to post at odds of 49 to 1 and 66 to 1, respectively, they will be bet rather heavily here due to the huge drop in class into this non-graded race. To assess their form at this level we can look back to before the Breeders’ Cup, where both ran well. Nitrogen finished third in the Natalma Stakes at the same one mile trip on turf with a 90 figure, while Correto finished third in the Miss Grillo Stakes with an 89 figure. Nitrogen has the best late pace figure in the field and should be coming on very strongly late. Correto is a daughter of exceptional mare Spooky Kitten, so she is a half-sister to THREE other multiple turf route winners and stakes winners including Spooky Channel and is appears from her races to date she too will be a stakes winner on grass.
Handicapper Picks
Win: This is the type of race where we need to let the public help us decide which horses we will bet to win, taking a contrarian stance and betting TWO of the four contenders at the highest odds of the quartet, at odds of 3 to 1 or higher, and if appropriate using a dutching tool to help get the best mathematical edge.
Exacta and Trifecta:
Box: Correto, Civetta, Nitrogen, Good Long Cry
Los Flores Stakes - Race 9 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:30 PM Eastern
Top win contender: Richi
Other win contenders: Pleasant, Pushiness
Richi won six of nine races in her native Chile, finishing second twice as well, before importing to the U.S. She won at distances ranging from five furlongs to a mile and one-quarter, including a pair of Group 1 stakes races. She debuted locally in June off a six month layoff and ran huge, dueling head and head for the lead from the start and getting in front by a head with an eighth of a mile to go before settling for second, not bad at all following six months off. The third horse came back to win and the layoff she’s coming back from here isn’t any different so she should fire big, particularly with a portentous “Blinkers Off/ Fast Workout” pattern with her last two workouts the best of 50 and second best of 49, respectively, on the day. The 96 figure she earned in June, in the similar Desert Stormer Stakes, at this distance, should be improved upon in her second start locally and the fact she takes blinkers off after battling and tiring last out is good as well as she will be able to see whoever is next to her better this time around.
Pleasant has won three of five and finished close to the winner in two others, including when coming up a nose shy of second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint two months off. Its highly likely she will be the favorite off that effort and she certainly can win, so must be used on any exacta, double, pick 3 and pick 4 tickets involving this race. On the other hand, the 100 figure she earned winning in September, off a 13 month layoff, the figure isn’t that much superior to the 96 figure Richi earned in her June effort and with both expected to run as well or better they both have the same probability to win in my opinion, with Richi offering better odds for a win bet.
Pushiness is very likely the one to catch in this field as she has had the lead after a quarter mile in EVERY one of her eight races to date, winning four. Three were stakes but against California breds only so a bit lower class level than this open (not restricted) stakes race. She has lost ground in the last eighth of a mile in three of her last four and that’s a concern, but she returns to six furlongs where she won one before last and Rispoli has been aboard for three wins in seven races.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Richi at odds of 3 to 2 or more.
Exacta: Box Richi and Pleasant, Box Richi and Pushiness
