Key Races & Bets for Saturday March 18th, 2023
Harrison E. Johnson Memorial Stakes – Race 7 at Laurel – Post Time 3:31 PM Eastern
Main win contenders:
American Patrol returns from a short, two month, freshening and could be the one to beat as he’s five for eight on dirt including a career-best effort at this mile trip one race before the irrelevant race which led to the layoff. That effort was a near six length win when leading from the start but he’s also won from off the pace and he put in a very strong half-mile workout at Fair Hills for high percentage (25% last year) trainer Lynch, signaling top form is forthcoming. He also won off layoffs previously twice in his career.
American d’Oro has won the last two times he’s raced this one-turn mile trip at Laurel, including five weeks ago for a career-best effort from the same rail he draws today. He could benefit if American Patrol decides to duel with need-the-lead type Hello Hot Rod (which I hope doesn’t happen) and even if there’s not hot pace duel he can still be a part of the exacta at the least.
Nimitz Class is likely to go favored on the strength of his seven for 13 record including two straight stakes wins at Laurel. However, both were around two turns and he’s never run this one-turn mile so under the “don’t bet a heavy favorite trying something new for the first time” rule he’s not a good win bet but should be used on exacta, pick 3 and double tickets (which are listed below).
Handicapper Picks
Win: American Patrol at odds of 9 to 5 or higher, likely a low odds overlay win bet.
I’d also consider American d’Oro at odds of 3 to 1 or higher, and considering he opens at 6 to 1 that opportunity may present itself as well.
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Exactas: Box American d’Oro, Nimitz Class, American Patrol
Double:
Race 7: American d’Oro, Nimitz Class, American Patrol
Race 8: Lady Lowery
Pick 3: (Ticket One of Two)
Race 7: American d’Oro, Nimitz Class, American Patrol
Race 8: Lady Lowery
Race 9: Feeling Woozy, Circling the Drain, Howgreatisnate, Register, Coffeewithchris
Pick 3: (Ticket Two of Two)
Race 7: American d’Oro, Nimitz Class, American Patrol
Race 8: Pharoahs Baby Gyal, Lady Lowery, Happy Clouds, Cairo Sugar
Race 9: Register
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Beyond the Wire Stakes – Race 8 at Laurel – Post Time 4:02 PM Eastern
Main contenders;
In my opinion Lady Lowery sticks out on paper even though she’s never run on conventional dirt. She finished fast from 11th and last to get second in her debut in January then won in “ridden out” fashion four weeks ago in a powerful effort in a 12 horse field. She’s bred to adore this longer trip as a daughter of Munnings and she put in a very strong best of 29 half-mile work before leaving the trainer’s Kentucky base last week. Her regular rider Jack Gilligan stays aboard and as she’s stretching out from a sprint she is likely to be faster in the early stages than any other horse in the field so could have an easy lead from the start and never look back.
As you may have noted from one of the pick 3 tickets, we can use three other horses here because there appears to be another standout in the next race. The three other fillies in this race who are not without a chance all ran well in their most recent starts – Pharoahs Baby Gyal won an allowance race over the track by 10 lengths, Happy Clouds battled head and head the length of the stretch before missing by a head over the track 15 days ago and Cairo Sugar ships in from New York off a win at this one-turn mile trip in a statebred restricted stakes.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Lady Lowery can be bet to win at odds of 8 to 5 or more, hopefully a low odds overlay win bet.
Exactas:
Lady Lowery over Pharoahs Baby Gyal, Happy Clouds and Cairo Sugar
Optional Doubles (not necessary if the pick 3 ticket(s) are live)
Race 8: Lady Lowery
Race 9: Feeling Woozy, Circling the Drain, Howgreatisnate, Register, Coffeewithchris
Race 8: Pharoahs Baby Gyal, Lady Lowery, Happy Clouds, Cairo Sugar
Race 9: Register
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Private Terms Stakes – Race 9 at Laurel – Post Time 4:33 PM Eastern
Main win contenders:
Register ships in from New York on a strong pattern of improving Equibase Speed Figures, from 83 in his debut, to 87, to a graded stakes quality 103 figure four weeks ago. He’s got good tactical speed and can lead or sit off the pace and he’s very well bred to there is every reason he can repeat, or better, that last effort and if he does he should be extremely tough to beat.
On one of the pick 3 tickets and double tickets I included four other horses, all about the same on paper in terms of how fast they’ve run. Coffeewithchris has been first or second in his last three races, all stakes around one turn. He’s never run in a two turn race but has been very competitive of late. Feeling Woozy finished third behind Coffeewithchris in the Miracle Wood Stakes four weeks ago and also is trying two turns for the first time. Circling the Drain won at this distance last month in an allowance race and has never finished worse than second in four races. Howgreatisnate stumbled badly and lost the jockey at the start of the Gotham Stakes last month and was overmatched anyway. He had won all four races prior to that, all at six furlongs or less, but is bred to route and could return to competitive form.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Register at odds of 9 to 5 or higher, another possible low odds overlay win bet.
Exactas:
Register over Feeling Woozy, Circling the Drain, Howgreatisnate, Coffeewithchris
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Silks Run Stakes – Race 11 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:35 PM Eastern
Main win contenders:
There are many contenders in this big field, nine to be exact, but the horse which I must start with is Lucky Score, because he opens at 10 to 1 odds which are way too high to ignore. His overall record is strong at 5-2-2 in 13 races, with wins on turf and all-weather, and he’s a stakes winner, having captured the Grade 3 Vigil Stakes at Woodbine last September. His only other race after that wasn’t bad either as it was against much tougher in the Grade 2 Kennedy Road Stakes, where he rallied from last of 10 to get third, after going TEN paths wide on the far turn. Now in the Mark Casse barn, Lucky Score has put in three straight strong workouts on the turf at Palm Meadows AND off a layoff similar to the one he’s coming back from today he won at this five furlong turf trip in the summer of 2021. Getting Tyler Gaffalione is a big plus, and is the fact there are from two to five horses in this field who will want the lead at any cost from the start or who will be pressing the horses which do get to the front. Likely to be last early or nearly so, Lucky Score just needs some racing luck and a clear path late because if he repeats his Vigil Stakes effort with a strong 108 Equibase Speed Figure, he can post the upset win.
Yes I am Free is the other top win contenders, not just because of his strong 11 for 25 overall record including a nine for 20 record on grass, it’s because he LOVES the Gulfstream Park turf where he’s won eight of 15, mostly at this five furlong trip including the higher level Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint Stakes five weeks ago. He also won this race last year, beating Belgrano by a neck on the wire, and he’s won back-to-back previously. In a shorter field he might go to post at odds too low to consider a win bet, but he opens at 7 to 2 and may go to post around those odds, which would make him very playable as another win bet.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Lucky Score and Yes I Am Free at odds of 5 to 2. I’d actually go as low as 2 to 1 for Yes I Am Free.
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Exactas:
Lucky Score and Yes I Am Free over ALL
