Key Races & Bets for Saturday March 25th, 2023
Race 8 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:07 PM Eastern
Main win contenders:
Miss Delicious appears to have a big edge in this field, which is loaded with “early” and “presser” types, likely resulting in a faster than average and contentious pace scenario. She was overmatched in the Grade 3 Honey Fox Stakes on March 4 but prior to that ran FOUR big races in a row, all on turf, for two wins and two runner-up finishes. The best of those was her runner-up effort at this identical level and one mile turf trip at Gulfstream Park on January 26, with Castellano up (same as today) where she finished fast from seventh into a leader no horse was going to catch. That earned the mare a career-best 102 Equibase Speed Figure which beats these if repeated. Even if she doesn’t win, she has a very high probability to be second as she’s been first or second in seven of 15 turf races so she’s a key on any exacta tickets we play.
The only question in terms of another possible contender is Arina, making her U.S. debut and returning from seven months off for Brown. She won a Group 3 stakes in Germany last July with a 105 figure and Brown has won with about 20% of his foreign first time starters the past few years, BUT he hasn’t won with one since last May, including four at the meet. As such I’m going to take a stand this filly will need a race for her best.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Miss Delicious at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Exactas: Miss Delicious over Free Data, Arina, Wonka, My Candy Girl, Keyflower, Traffic Song
AND also the opposite, which is Free Data, Arina, Wonka, My Candy Girl, Keyflower, Traffic Song over Miss Delicious
There are three Pick 3 tickets we can play starting in this race, as there are just one or two main win contenders in subsequent legs, but also the possibility for an upset. So, for just the $0.50 minimum we can get a LOT of coverage and if our main contenders win two or three of the legs, we can cash twice or on all three tickets
Pick 3:
Race 8: Miss Delicious
Race 9: Strasbourg, Danville
Race 10: All
Pick 3:
Race 8: All
Race 9: Strasbourg, Danville
Race 10: Bedtime Story, My Sweet Affair
Pick 3:
Race 8: Miss Delicious
Race 9: All
Race 10: Bedtime Story, My Sweet Affair
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Race 9 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:36 PM Eastern
Main contenders;
In what might appear to be a wide open starter allowance race at first, there are many horses that just don’t fit at the level, aren’t in top form or aren’t expected to run well based on claims by trainers who don’t do that well with their new acquisitions. Strasbourg is the opposite of that, having been claimed last out by Edgar Bayeh, who has an exceptional record of six for 17 off the claim going back to January of 2023. He’s won with five of his last 11 off-claim starters and one of those was with Strasbourg, who he claimed on 12/9 and won right away with on 12/29. Strasbourg was claimed away out of that win then came back and finished eighth on 2/26. Bayeh RECLAIMED the horse, for the same owner as for the 12/29 win, and Reyes (up for that win) rides back. That win came at this mile trip and was fairly impressive in drawing off by almost four lengths and that’s why he gets top billing (slightly) in this situation.
Danville is the other main contender to win, having won an identical starter allowance races on 12/4 at Hawthorne and then two later here at Gulfstream Park on January 21. He finished second in one of the other two and third in his most recent, with all four of those coming off the Winebaugh claim. KEY to his returning to top form as on 1/21 is the return to the mile trip and the fact Jose Ortiz is getting back on.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Strasbourg AND Danville should be strongly considered for win bets at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Betting two horses at greater than minimum odds/fair odds presents a good opportunity to use the free dutching tool at Amwager.com, where you can set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, and the math is done for you to help achieve the best edge. This is just one of many tools, and perks, for bettors at Amwager.com
Optional Doubles (not necessary if the pick 3 ticket(s) are live)
Race 9: Strasbourg, Danville
Race 10: Bedtime Story, My Sweet Affair
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Melody of Colors Stakes – Race 10 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:06 PM Eastern
Main win contenders:
Even for a stakes level turf sprint where horses can often get a lead on fast fractions and still win, this race is way too top heavy in “early” pace types for any of them to hang on. Sassy Nature wired the field in January when winning career start #2 on dirt in California then came to Florida to win very easily at this five furlong turf trip at Gulfstream on March 1, but with Sassy Nature, Wide West and also-eligible Primrose Ridge also all having a need-the-lead style, plus with many horse who like to set second or third early, and with newly blinkered Miss Vyvyanne also likely to have to go fast from her two post in the gate, the early fractions and contested nature of the early stages of the race should set up the closers nicely.
My Sweet Affair is the first of the pair likely to benefit the most from the hot early tempo. She showed a lot of maturity winning at first asking 20 days ago over the track at the trip. She sat in third early off a fast 43.8 half-mile split and drew off easily to win. She should improve both physically and mentally off the race and gets a good post as well.
Bedtime Story started her career in December pretty cheaply in a 16K maiden claiming race but no one saw fit to take her and she’s been claim proof since. Now undefeated in three starts, the most recent on February 2 was the most impressive. It was at this distance on the all-weather track and under Castellano (up for the first time and riding back today) Bedtime Story sat in fourth until an eighth of a mile to go and accelerated nicely to win going away. She too should run even better and it should be noted Castellano chose to ride Bedtime Story over Just a Care, who also won in her most recent start.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Bedtime Story and My Sweet Affair should be considered for win bets at 5 to 2 odds or higher. This is another great race to use a dutching tool, like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager, to prorate our wagers for our best advantage.
Exactas:
Bedtime Story and My Sweet Affair over Vai Bella, Bedtmie Story, Clay Soldier, Just a Care, My Sweet Affair, Showgirl Lynne B, Sure Can, Miami Girl and Primrose Ridge
Optionally you can play an exacta of Bedtime Story and My Sweet Affair over ALL
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Kentucky Derby Prep Selections:
Jeff Ruby Steaks – Race 12 at Turfway Park (Post Time 6:25 eastern):
Major Dude and Point Proven, who draw the extreme inside and outside posts and who are both trained by Todd Pletcher, deserve the most respect. Other potential win contenders are Congruent, Event Detail, Funtastic Again and Scoobie Quando.
Louisiana Derby – Race 12 at Fair Grounds (Post Time 6:42 eastern):
Sun Thunder, who finished from 10th to 1st then got caught and ended up second in the Risen Star stakes last month, gets top billing. Todd Pletcher has another strong contender in Kingsbarns. Likely favorite Instant Coffee has done little wrong and won the Lecomte Stakes in January but skipped the February preps and that is of slight concern as he may be the betting favorite.
