Key Races & Bets for Saturday May 3rd, 2025

Note: Due to restrictions, this race will not be available for wagering at Amwager.com

Win contenders in probability order: Journalism, Luxor Cafe, Baeza (also-eligible), Sovereignty, Admire Daytona, Final Gambit, Grande

Overview including how the race will be run in the early stages: In this year’s Kentucky Derby, the likely betting choice will be Journalism, who appears to be a legitimate favorite by virtue of his record and how fast he’s run. Not only that, but Journalism may be the beneficiary of a contested early pace which should be much faster than average. With his mid-pack running style, Journalism can take advantage at the point when the horses which are on the lead and pressing the pacesetters tire. Four of the seven that drew to the inside of Journalism (who will break from post position eight) appear to be horses which need the lead to win. In most races around two turns, drawing the inside can present an advantage as running near the rail is the shortest way around. However, in the Derby, having an inside post can be a disadvantage for horses which like to lead early in a race because many horses will move closer to the rail to avoid losing ground by going wide on the first turn and some will expend a good deal of energy to do so. This forces horses which like to run in front early to go faster than they otherwise might in order to gain a forward position before those other horses get to the inside paths.
We saw exactly this type of early pace scenario in last year’s Derby when the first quarter mile was run in :22.97 seconds and the first half mile in :46.63 seconds. This resulted in the horses which were first, second and third through the first part of the race finishing 11th, 17th and 15th, respectively. Similarly, in the 2023 Derby, the opening quarter mile was run in :22.35 and the opening half mile time was :45.73. The result was the top four horses in the early stages ended up 16th, 14th, 13th and 17th, respectively. In addition, last year another “need the lead” type, Dornoch, got bumped out of the gate and never gained early position, finishing 10th.

In this year’s Derby field, Citizen Bull draws the number one post and considering all three of his wins around two turns were earned leading from start to finish, he will have to go very fast from the opening bell to get the lead, or he may end up shuffled back like Dornoch and never get into a forward position. Rodriguez draws the four post and both of his wins have been earned leading from start to finish so he’s another with a “need the lead” running style. Similarly, Neoequos earned his only win this year (in a one-turn race) leading from start to finish, and in his recent two turn races he tired and finished third. American Promise may be another horse who can only succeed on the lead because in one of his two wins he led from start to finish, although in his recent win in the Virginia Derby he was in second for the opening half mile. However, it must be noted the Virginia Derby was a one-turn race and around two turns, particularly as he’s drawn near the rail, American Promise may need to go fast early to get to first or second in the first hundred yards or so. Then there’s East Avenue, who won the Breeders’ Futurity last fall when in front from start to finish. In the Blue Grass Stakes last month, East Avenue led from the start and was beaten right on the wire. Owen Almighty gets the 20 post and is likely to be one of those using his early speed to get close to the rail in the early stages. Owen Almighty won the Tampa Bay Derby in March when leading from the start and in the Blue Grass Stakes he chased East Avenue in second from the beginning before fading to fifth.

Top contenders, in preference/probability order: Under this early pace scenario, even if only three or four of the horses which have shown the need to lead early in their previous races go for the front from the start, and don’t get jostled and lose early position, Journalism should find himself in the same spot he was on March 1 in his 2025 debut when fourth in the early stages of the San Felipe Stakes before rallying to win. Similarly, in the Santa Anita Derby last month, Journalism was fifth after a half mile before moving up to second with an eighth of a mile to run before taking the lead in the stretch. The 110 and 108 Equibase Speed Figures earned respectively in those two efforts average to the best last two efforts in the field. Considering the Derby will be his third start of the year, Journalism still may not have run his best race and even with others potentially also running their best races of the year, he may be the one they all have to beat to win.

One of those potentially leap frogging over Journalism to post the upset is Luxor Cafe. He’s run six times to date, all in Japan, winning four in a row the same as Journalism. Although he’s only run in Japan to date, Luxor Cafe has local connections as he is a son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and was bred in Kentucky. His dam (mother) has produced two champions – Regal Glory, champion turf female in 2022, and Café Pharoah (also by American Pharoah), Japan’s champion dirt horse in 2022 – so this colt has the pedigree to succeed in the Derby. Additionally, in contrast to most of the horses which have run in the U.S. and faced fields of 10 or less, Luxor Cafe has won in fields of 16, 14, 10 and 11. Luxor Cafe earned 108, 105 and 105 Equibase Speed Figures in three of his four wins, which compares favorably to the 106, 108 and 110 figures Journalism earned in three of his last four races, so Luxor Cafe appears to be just as fast as Journalism. In his most recent win on March 29, Luxor Cafe rallied from sixth in the early stages and was very responsive when the jockey asked him to extend his stride, which he did without much encouragement. The fact Luxor Cafe responded so easily is the sign of a smart, athletic horse who wants to win. Jockey Joao Moreira is one of the top jockeys in the world and rode the colt for the first time in that recent race and rides back in the Derby. Moreira has won nearly 2,500 races in his career and the horses he’s ridden have earned more than $57 million in prize money. The jockey is no stranger to the big stages and has a pretty good chance to add to his career accolades with Luxor Cafe in this year’s Derby.

As this is being written, Baeza is still an also eligible who can only run if one of the 20 in the main body of the race should withdraw. We saw this happen in 2022 when Rich Strike got into the field the day before the race and won. Baeza has run two big races in a row and appears ready for the Derby. Two races ago he won powerfully and earned a 104 Equibase Speed Figure, then in the Santa Anita Derby and facing the more experienced Journalism (who had run two more races), Baeza moved up quickly on the far turn to get the lead by a length in the stretch but was passed by Journalism and finished three-quarters of a length behind. Nevertheless, Baeza improved from a 104 figure to a 107 figure and he’s on a pattern to run even better in his fifth career start. The BIG story, for those which may be unaware, is Baeza is out of the mare Puca, who produced 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Kentucky Derby starter Dornoch, who went on to win the Belmont Stakes last June. If Baeza makes it into the starting gate, it would be a historic event to have sons of Puca compete in the Derby in three consecutive years. Trainer John Shirreffs is no stranger to bringing a long shot to run in the Derby, having saddled Giacomo to a 50 to 1 upset win in the 2002 Derby. It must also be noted that jockey Flavien Prat, who set an all-time record for stakes wins in North America in 2024, is named to ride both Baeza and Neoequos, but has declared his preference is to ride Baeza, so if the horse gets to run, Neoequos will have a different jockey.

Sovereignty is yet another very talented equine athlete. In the third race of his career, he won the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs last October. Then, following four months off and as if he had no time off at all, Sovereignty won the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 1. Following that up four weeks later, the colt rallied for second in the Florida Derby. The truth of the matter is that Sovereignty did not have to win that race to enter the Derby starting gate as he had enough points based on his two prior wins, but the winner did. In both the Street Sense and Fountain of Youth, Sovereignty showed a strong kick when asked by his jockey. This is very important in a race like the Derby when many horses start to run low on energy after one mile and one-eighth has been run, given none of them have run farther than that distance in their careers. The ability of a horse to accelerate quickly on the far turn and extricate itself from what could be a traffic jam can be very beneficial in a race like the Derby and Sovereignty has demonstrated that ability. Although his last three figures of 99, 98 and 94 are all below the 100 threshold the aforementioned contenders have earned to date, it strikes me that since it appears Sovereignty wasn’t fully extended in the Florida Derby because he didn’t need to be, he might run the winning race in this situation.

Admire Daytona, like Luxor Cafe, is another Japanese-based horse in this field. In the 2024 Derby, both Japanese based horses ran exceptionally well, with Forever Young missing victory by inches while T.O. Password suffered from a significant amount of traffic trouble and ended up fifth after being 18th in the early stages. Forever Young had won the U.A.E. Derby prior to the Kentucky Derby, the same race Admire Daytona won this year on April 5. He earned a 108 Equibase Speed Figure in that race, on par with the top contenders in this field. Although winning that race when leading from start to finish, Admire Daytona was resilient in holding off many challengers to prevail by a neck. Prior to that, he finished fourth behind Luxor Cafe in the Hyacinth Stakes. Although he led from start to finish in the U.A.E. Derby, Admire Daytona rallied from fourth to win his first start of the year in February, so he has proven not to need the lead to win and could be a factor this year in the same way Forever Young was 12 months ago.

Final Gambit and Grande round out the group of main contenders. They appear to have less probability of winning than the horses mentioned above but start at odds of 20 to 1 and 30 to 1, respectively, and could be the types of horses we would be kicking ourselves after the race if not wagering a few dollars to win. Final Gambit put in a huge late run to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks on March 22. He does his best running from last, or nearly so, and if he gets rolling without traffic trouble it would be thrilling to watch. He earned a 96 figure winning the Jeff Ruby, which as a prep race produced 2011 Derby winner Animal Kingdom and 2023 runner-up Two Phils. Final Gambit is trained by Brad Cox, who won the 2021 Derby with Mandaloun, and his sire, Not This Time, sired 2023 third place Derby finisher Essential Quality. In the Jeff Ruby, per GPS data that is available to racing fans, Final Gambit ran the fastest last eighth of a mile of any entrant in this field at 37 miles per hour. Grande finished second in the Wood Memorial Stakes last month in New York as his final prep for the Derby. The winner of the race was Rodriguez, who as mentioned earlier is one of the “need the lead” types in this year’s Derby field. Given that Grande closed from seventh in the Wood, and with a contested pace to run into, this colt has a decent shot to continue his improving pattern of figures, from 88 in his debut in January, to 89 in February, to 106 last time out. As a son of Curlin, the same sire as Journalism, Grande should have no problem successfully running this mile and one-quarter distance, and he could be a significant factor in the late stages of the race for Todd Pletcher, who last won the Derby in 2017 with Always Dreaming.

Handicapper Picks

Betting suggestions: There will be more than a few horses with high odds which can run well, which is normally not the case in many races, so the Derby is definitely a race in which betting on two or three horses to win, win and place or win, place and show may be warranted. You can use the list below to help decide which bets to make:

Journalism – Minimum betting odds 3 to 1
Luxor Cafe – Minimum betting odds 4 to 1
Baeza – Minimum betting odds 6 to 1
Sovereignty – Minimum betting odds 6 to 1
Admire Daytona – Minimum betting odds 15 to 1
Final Gambit – Minimum betting odds 15 to 1
Grande – Minimum betting odds 15 to 1

Exactas:
Box Journalism, Luxor Cafe, Baeza (also-eligible), Sovereignty, Admire Daytona, Final Gambit, Grande

Journalism and Luxor Cafe over Journalism, Luxor Cafe, Baeza (also-eligible), Sovereignty, Admire Daytona, Final Gambit, Grande

Journalism and Luxor Cafe over ALL