Key Races & Bets for Saturday May 24th AND Monday 26th (Memorial Day)
Saturday May 24
Cliff Hanger Stakes - Race 9 at Monmouth - Post Time 4:57 PM Eastern
Top win contender: Belouni
For exactas: Signator, There Are No Words, Forever Souper, He’spuregold
Belouni ships in to New Jersey from Saratoga, where Chad Brown’s horses are getting ready for the Belmont Stakes weekend, July fourth festival and full summer meeting, off a sharp win a little over four weeks ago at Tampa. He had been off for nine months prior to that so he’s going to run even better (faster) and last year he earned a field high 108 Equibase Speed Figure winning on grass so the 96 figure he earned last month when not 100% fit is going to be improved upon. Camacho rides and when he has ridden for Brown in turf routes the past three year’s he’s won 8 of 32 (25%), part of Brown’s excellent record in turf route stakes at Monmouth over the same period, which is 13 for 42 (also 25%).
Signator, There Are No Words, Forever Souper, He’spuregold all have a shot to complete the exacta by finishing second and that may be the better play is Belouni is bet below fair odds.
Handicapper Picks
b:
Belouni is a key bet to win and low odds overlay at 9 to 5 or higher.
Exactas:
Belouni over Signator, There Are No Words, Forever Souper and He’spuregold
(The exacta above can also be played as a $0.50 trifecta with the same four horses in second and third position).
Paradise Creek Stakes - Race 10 at Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct) - Post Time 5:45 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Supersonic Blue, Super Swift
Longshot possibility: Flat to Da Mat
Supersonic Blue possesses the second best last race Equibase Speed Figure in the field, 96, which is the best figure on turf by any horse in the field. He earned that figure winning the John Shear Stakes on April 6 at Santa Anita at the distance of six and one-half furlongs. That effort followed a three-month rest, with Supersonic Blue winning a similar turf sprint race prior to that with an 83 figure. In both recent wins, Supersonic Blue led from start to finish, and with red hot jockey Flavien Prat aboard for the Paradise Creek we can expect the same type of effort, additionally with improvement in the horse’s second start off the layoff. That makes Supersonic Blue the one to catch, and to beat, in the Paradise Creek Stakes.
Super Swift has been nearly perfect in five sprint races in his career, winning twice and finishing second in three others. In two of his runner-up efforts, Super Swift missed winning by inches, and the runner-up from his most recent win flattered him by winning his next start. Super Swift has only run in a turf sprint once previously, last fall in the Atlantic Beach Stakes on this turf course, where he finished second behind Warheart, who led from start to finish. Considering Supersonic Blue is the horse likely to be leading from the start in this race, Super Swift should be able to run that well, or better, considering his last race speed figure of 99 is the best in the field and bears improving in his first start off a two month layoff.
Flat to Da Mat doesn’t have multiple wins or positive experience in stakes like Supersonic Blue and Super Swift, but he ran very well in his only previous start in a turf sprint, and his last race can be ignored when assessing his chances to run competitively in this race. After starting his career in a dirt sprint and finishing eighth, Flat to Da Mat stretched out to two turns and moved to turf, resulting in another eighth-place finish. Changing trainers to Mike Maker and shortening up in distance to this six furlong trip on grass, Flat to Da Mat rallied nicely from eighth of 10 to win by a head on the finish line under Dylan Davis, earning an 82 speed figure. An all-weather sprint try followed where the colt finished fifth, then when entered in the Palisades Stakes (scheduled for turf) last month, Flat to Da Mat stayed in the race although run on a sloppy main track and finished fourth. Reunited with Davis for the Paradise Creek and returning to the distance and surface of his best effort, this colt may run similarly well and has an upset chance.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Supersonic Blue at 2 to 1 or higher.
Super Swift at 5 to 2 or higher.
Flat to Da Mat at 5 to 1 or higher
Exactas:
Supersonic Blue and Super Swift over Supersonic Blue, Super Swift, Flat to Da Mat, Jet Sweep Joe and Pivotal Moment
Box Supersonic Blue, Super Swift, Flat to Da Mat
Trifectas:
Supersonic Blue and Super Swift over ALL over Supersonic Blue, Super Swift, Flat to Da Mat, Jet Sweep Joe and Pivotal Moment
Supersonic Blue and Super Swift over Supersonic Blue and Super Swift over Flat to Da Mat, Jet Sweep Joe and Pivotal Moment
Monday, May 26
Gamely Stakes - Race 7 at Santa Anita - Post Time 7 PM Eastern
Top Win contenders: Lady Claypoole, No Show Sammy Jo
Other contenders: Expensive Queen, Khinjani
In a very strong edition of the Gamely Stakes, where six of the nine winning would be no surprise, Lady Claypoole gets top billing. She’s won three in a row, all on grass, two at the nine furlong distance of this race and all at Santa Anita. Her most recent win came in the Grade 3 Santa Ana Stakes on March 15 so she is moving up to the grade 1 level for the first time but the 104 Equibase Speed Figure earned in that race tells me she fits with these, considering the best figure this year on grass was earned by Liguria winning the Grade 2 Buena Vista Stakes. Lady Claypoole drew the rail for the Santa Ana as she does for this race and Pereira (who is three-for-three when riding her) came off the rail and rallied wide, still winning easily. The runner-up (Mrs Astor) came back to win the Santa Barbara Stakes and with a very strong pair of workouts this month coming into the race Lady Claypoole can win her second straight stakes race in a row. On a sentimental note, Lady Claypoole was the key horse that put me in a position to make the top 10% cut in the National Horseplayers Championship on that weekend in March, moving me up from 150th to 34th, which is where if finished (among 800 entries) after the semi-final was concluded on Sunday.
No Show Sammy Jo ran poorly in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes last month at Keeneland but that was her first start after five months off and prior to that she won four in a row then lost by a nose. The best of those was the nose defeat in November in the Grade 3 Long Island Stakes, with Flavien Prat aboard. Prat had ridden her once before, to a win in May, gets on today, and continues to be the hottest rider in North America in bi races, particularly in graded stakes races on turf, where at Santa Anita alone over the past five years he’s won 25 of 86. She’s been working great for Graham Motion at his Fair Hills (Maryland) training facility and Motion and Prat are two-for-two at Santa Anita over the past 18 months as well.
Expensive Queen was visually impressive winning in her U.S. debut last month at Keeneland following five months off and should improve, but moving from NW1X allowance to Grade 1 may be a tall order. Nevertheless, she could hit the board and it is notable trainer Brendan Walsh has brought a horse in to run in this race for the past four years, winning in 2022 with Ocean Road, off an allowance win at Keeneland.
Khinjani was away from the races for 14 months when returning on May 9 at Santa Anita, likely with this race in mind. She ran well for second and had significant traffic trouble in the race so may be good for a share as well.
Handicapper Picks
Bets-
Win: Consider BOTH Lady Claypoole and No Show Sammy Jo for win bets at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
When presented with the opportunity to wager on more than one horse to win, we can gain the best mathematical edge possible by using a “Dutching” tool to prorate our wagers. There is a free Dutching tool at Amwager where all we have to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.
Exacta: Lady Claypoole and No Show Sammy Jo over Lady Claypoole, No Show Sammy Jo, Expensive Queen and Khinjani
Shoemaker Mile - Race 9 at Santa Anita - Post Time 8 PM Eastern
Top Win contenders: Mi Hermano Ramon, Seal Team, Formidable Man
Contenders for exacta tickets: King of Gosford, Atitlan
Mi Hermano Ramon gets slight preference in this strong field based on two factors – pace and jockey. If both Goliad and Cabo Spirit run as expected, the early pace is going to be contested and very fast. They draw the two outside posts and have to go because being in front early is all they know how to do. Additionally, Goliad shares ownership and the same trainer (Mandella) with Seal Team, is likely in the race to give those connections a one-two punch. A horse entered to go to the lead in order to set up a closer is called a “Rabbit” and this is a common tactic European racing and is sometimes employed in the North America but the thing about “Rabbits” is the don’t necessarily help ONLY the horse they are designed to help, and that benefits Mi Hermano Ramon, who won the Seabiscuit Stakes last November, the ONLY time Berrios rode him previously in a turf route, with a huge rally from eighth and nine lengths back with a quarter mile to run, to win going away. That effort earned a 122 Equibase Speed Figure and it could be repeatable here with the pace setup and Berrios riding for the first time since the Seabiscuit.
Seal Team finished second when last seen in February, at this mile trip, in the Thunder Road Stakes, after breaking through the gate before the start then starting ninth. Before that he finished third behind Johannes and Mi Hermano Ramon and before that fifth in the Seabiscuit, when he made a big move from six lengths back and fourth on the turn to lead, before that premature rally took its toll. Hernandez rides for the first time and from the rail Seal Team can relax early and time his move just right such as when winning the Twilight Derby on this course in the fall of 2023, moving from eighth on the turn to fifth with an eighth of a mile to run, then blowing by four horses to win.
Formidable Man has won six of 11 races on grass including the similar Kilroe Mile when last seen in March. The layoff is no problem as he won the Hollywood Derby last November off a three month layoff and it appears Rispoli rightly chose to ride him over Seal Team, who had had ridden to all three of his career wins, because Rispoli has been aboard for the last FOUR wins Formidable Man has earned, all in stakes.
King of Gosford won the Mathis Mile (for three year olds only) in December, took four months off, then was second to wire-to-wire winner Cabo Spirit in the American Stakes last month. Cabo Spirit is unlikely to get an easy lead here so King of Gosford is yet another with a shot and Prat has been aboard for three of his five U.S. wins. Atitlan won the Whittingham Stakes 23 days ago at one mile and one-quarter and has a big kick so can benefit from the hot pace and cut back in distance. It is notable, however, that Berrios, who had ridden him in all four career wins, three in stakes, chooses Mi Hermano Ramon to ride in this race.
Handicapper Picks
Win: We should consider win bets on any two of the three contenders (those at the highest odds of the group) at 5 to 2 or more – Mi Hermano Ramon, Seal Team, Formidable Man
If the odds are high enough that two of the three are above the minimum, and that should be the case, this is another good race to use the “Dutching Tool” at Amwager to get the best mathematical edge possible.
Exacta: Mi Hermano Ramon, Seal Team and Formidable Man over Mi Hermano Ramon, Seal Team, Formidable Man, King of Gosford and Atitlan