Key Races & Bets for Saturday November 13, 2021
James F. Lewis III Stakes – Race 7 at Laurel – Post Time 3:23 PM Eastern
Run to Daylight is undefeated in three starts and is likely to remain that way when this stakes for two year olds is over. He won his debut by three lengths then a little stakes at Charles Town by nearly six then another stakes last time out by two. His logical progression in Equibase Speed Figures (64 to 72 to 79) should continue and he brings along regular rider Bocachica, who has won with a strong 33% of his 679 races this year. The gelding does not need the lead to win and not only is this horse a multiple winner but his dam also produced a colt named Twirling Owen who won five of 11 including a number of stakes and who won at Laurel.
Slaats may have just broken his maiden last month but it was a powerful win due to adding blinkers and if repeated the effort could be good enough to post the mild upset here. Rallying from third at the distance and over the track under Cruz, who rides back, Slaats won easily by five lengths with gas left in the tank and earned an 80 figure right there with the figure Run To Daylight earned winning a stakes race. Gonzalez wins more than his share of stakes on the circuit and from the rail Slaats can save ground and have a big say in the outcome late. Both Slaats and Run to Daylight should have their late kicks set up nicely by need-the-lead type Tops the Charts, pushed along early by Local Motive and newly blinkered Cynergy’s Star.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets:
Run to Daylight at odds of 8 to 5 or more and Slaats at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
When we consider wagers on two or more overlays from fair (minimum odds), we can and should adjust our bets accordingly in order to maximize our profit both in the short term and in the long term. That can be best accomplished by using a “Dutching Tool” like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager.com. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exactas: (two options)
Box Run to Daylight and Slaats
Run to Daylight and Slaats over ALL
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Artie Schiller Stakes – Race 9 at Aqueduct – Post Time 3:43 PM Eastern
Rinaldi looks to have the early lead all to himself in this race, not only because the two horses inside of him in the gate have no interest in leading early but also because that’s the way he won the similar Forbidden Apple Stakes at this one mile trip at Saratoga this summer. He comes back from two and one half months off and won the Forbidden Apple following three months off so that appears to be the kind of break which he likes and which suggest that effort is repeatable here. Luis Saez rode him in the Forbidden Apple, as well as to back-to-back victories in wire-to-wire fashion in the summer of 2020 and to back-to-back victories in the summer of 2019, all on grass. Left alone to his own devices on the front end, Rinaldi becomes very tough to beat and opening at 6 to 1 is a very strong contender in this field.
Tell Your Daddy opens at half the odds of Rinaldi, 3 to 1, and for good reason as he just finished second (at 29 to 1) in the Keeneland Turf Mile. He won the Bernard Baruch Stakes at Saratoga before that so enters the race in top form and should be a strong contender down to the wire. That being said, his best three efforts this year yielded 103, 108 and 106 Equibase figures which aren’t any better than the 108, 109 and 104 three best figures Rinaldi has put forth this year so as a win bet he’s less likeable as opposed to Rinaldi, although Tell Your Daddy is a MUST to use on any exacta tickets played.
Olympic Runner opens at much higher odds than either of the other two main contenders, 12/1 to be exact, in spite of having won the King Edward Stakes at this mile turf trip in August. He wasn’t disgraced one bit last out when rallying from 10th to 3rd in the shorter Nearctic Stakes and after hitting the gate at the start, and with 12 first or second place finishes in his 25 career starts this veteran is another MUST use on any tickets we play involving the race.
We’ll use Flavius on exacta tickets, but he’s no standout and opens at 7/2. March to the Arch opens at 8 to 1 and must be used on exotic tickets as well as he was not disgraced when fourth and beaten a neck for third in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile in his most recent start. We should also use Bodecream for second on some exactas as he opens at 20/1 and just won his last start on grass as well as was second and beaten a nose in the very similar Gio Ponti Stakes one year ago. I will also toss in big longshot Mandate for second on some exacta tickets. He opens at a whopping 50/1 because he’s coming out of claiming races BUT his most recent effort, which came after a trainer change, was very good and suggests he can run with these. Not only did it earn a 107 Equibase Figure on par with the top contenders here, but he rallied from 10 back and drew off late. This gelding was formerly in the Pletcher barn and highly regarded and he could really help us make a profit if he runs well.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets:
Rinaldi at odds of 2 to 1 or more and Olympic runner at odds of 4 to 1 or more.
This is precisely the race to use a DUTCHING TOOL like the one at Amwager which is free and easy to use. Based on their morning line odds of 6 to 1 and 12 to 1 a DUTCHING TOOL allocates our bets for the best mathematical edge.
I would also bet a few dollars to win and place on Mandate, because at likely high odds if he does repeat that last race and we’re not holding a ticket we might be kicking ourselves.
Exactas:
Olympic Runner, Rinaldi and Tell Your Daddy over Olympic Runner, Rinaldi, Tell Your Daddy, Bodecream, and Mandate.
Olympic Runner, Rinaldi and Tell Your Daddy over Olympic Runner, Rinaldi, Tell Your Daddy, Flavius and March to the Arch.
(You’ll note both exactas contain the top three contenders so if any two of the three finish first and second we win both bets).
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Maple Leaf Stakes – Grade 3 – Race 7 at Woodbine – Post Time 3:56 PM Eastern
La Lune won three of 10 in her native Great Britain, all on grass, including TWO at this mile and one-quarter trip. She ran very well in her U.S. debut in September when rallying from 10th of 12 to miss by a neck when second in the Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon at nearly this distance. Then stretched out to 12 furlongs on turf in the Grade 3 Dowager Stakes, La Lune finished sixth of 10 without threatening. Cutting back to a mile and one-quarter and getting lasix, this filly who opens at 8 to 1 has a big shot to post the upset repeating her Kentucky Downs effort or her 10 furlong win in April in the U.K.
Lake Lucerne is another horse with credentials for the distance many in here lack. She won at the trip on all-weather in only the second start of her career in March, 2020, then ran poorly in three races and came to the U.S. She won her second stateside start this past May on the turf at Churchill Downs then three later won a tough second level allowance race on the grass at Saratoga, before finishing third in the Athenia Stakes at nine furlongs in September. Now stretching back out to 10 furlongs where she’s proven, this Godolphin homebred could easily be right there at the wire and potentially earn her fourth career win.
Merveilleux and Sister Otoole round out the contenders. Merveilleux drops in class from grade 1 and grade 2 stakes (four in a row) to this grade 3 level and her near miss by three-quarters of a length in the Dance Smartly Stakes in August would have her in the hunt at the wire here if repeated. Sister Otoole won at 10 furlongs on grass at Belmont in July and hasn’t run badly since as she was second in August and fourth in the Waya Stakes last month.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: La Lune AND Lake Lucerne at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Box Merveilleux, Sister Otoole, La Lune and Lake Lucerne
Trifectas:
Box Merveilleux, Sister Otoole, La Lune and Lake Lucerne
