September 23rd – Thrilling Picks Select Picks
THURSDAY GULFSTREAM PARK SEPT 23
We develop our picks through a process of analyzing past races that mirror today’s conditions to identify significant attributes that have helped past winners (aka regression analysis) . The selections below are intended to help shape multi-race tickets (Doubles, PICK3,4,5s).
RACE 1
Of the chalky contenders #3, 5, 8, handicappers maybe better off to toss #8 Greatest Glory from the win position of tickets because it finished 17+ lengths behind the winner in it’s prior race. Compare that to #3 SweetCandyFacatory which was only 1 length behind the winner if her last race. #5 Kingston Queen is the wildcard, it reared during at the start of it’s last race, meanwhile she was the favorite in the race before that.
EXACTA
#3, 5
#3, 5, 8
For Multi-Race Wagers
Must Use # 3
Stretch # 5
RACE 2
An interesting insight to share: Horses making a cut back in distance have NEVER won this race type before. This helps us eliminate two contenders immediately the #2 and #5.
60% of the time this race has been won by horses with the E2 pace advantage. Today, this is #4 Levy Land, but at 8-1 we will keep #4 as our stretch horse.
For Multi-Race Wagers
Must Use # 1, 6
Stretch # 4
RACE 3
This race type has been won by first time runners 100% of the time, but we are hesitant to single #4 Alecka Star, trainer Michael Yates has never won with a 3yr old debut runner. Trainer of #7 Happy Success, Ralph Nicks, doesn’t have a very strong win% at this level however, the owners do! Whisper Hill Farm have won 33% of races when their horses have a 3 month lay off.
For Multi-Race Wagers
We are going wide using #1, 4, 6, 7
RACE 4
As this race has gone off the turf, our model says to focus on Best Lifetime Speed and Avg Late Pace.
For Multi-Race Wagers
#2, 3, 9, 10
RACE 5
Another race won by 1st time starters majority of the time. We never bet RunHappy progeny on debut runs, they have poor win% , so we toss the longshot #8 Secret Melody. The jockey of #4 Wandering E. Jaramillo is the strongest jockey for this race type, wins 17% of the time.
For Multi-Race Wagers
Must Use # 1, 4, 5
Contender # 3
OUR PICK 5 in RACE 1
rc1 # 3, 5, 6
rc2 # 1, 6
rc3 #1, 4, 6, 7
rc4 # 2, 3, 9,10 (off turf)
rc5 # 1, 4
OUR PICK 3 in RACE 2
rc2 # 4
rc3 #1, 4, 5, 6, 7
rc4 # 2, 3, 9,10 (off turf)
